And what of Putin? His standing is irrecoverably changed. He promised a hard crackdown when he finally emerged to speak to the Russian people, but then backed down in the wake of Prigozhin’s decision to halt the march on Moscow. The fact that the President Alexander Lukashenko of Belarus had to intercede has also made Putin look weak. There is no hiding Putin’s weakness now from the Russian elite, his security services and his citizens. As such, Russia today appears far more brittle. It is almost inevitable that someone else will again exploit this weakness from within. As Russia expert Mark Galeotti has written, “When history records the downfall of the Russian president, it will say the endgame started here”.

What does this mean for the war in Ukraine?

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The best outcome is that internal frictions in Russia – between the army and Wagner, between Prigozhin and the military leadership – will be a distraction for Russian leaders and that it draws away some of the elite, loyal Russian army units to defend Russian borders, and Moscow. This might then provide additional opportunities for Ukrainian breakthroughs in their current offensives.

The worst outcome is that Putin, under pressure from hardliners, doubles down on Ukraine. This could involve another round of mobilisations and stepped-up attacks on vulnerable civilians and critical infrastructure in Ukraine. Additionally, there is potential for Putin to appoint a new commander in Ukraine. As tough as the current going is for them, General Valery Gerasimov has been a relatively inept commander. The Ukrainians probably don’t want him replaced with a more competent general (if there is such a thing in Russia anymore).

The most likely outcome is somewhere in between. There will undoubtedly be some impact on Russia’s battlefield operations. At a minimum, the withdrawal of Wagner forces will leave a gap to be filled in eastern Ukraine. And the morale of Russian soldiers in the field is probably at an all-time low.

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There is a surplus of uncertainty in the wake of Prigozhin’s mutiny. There will be more unpredictable outcomes from the uprising, and Ukraine’s response, in the coming days.

But one thing is certain. While the Ukrainians are making slow headway in the east and the south, there are many more bloody battles to come. The more we support them (and Australia is an appalling laggard here) the quicker they can end the slaughter in this war forced upon them by Putin and Russia’s elites.

Mick Ryan is a retired ADF major general.