In January, the Ukrainian parliament withdrew a draft law on mobilisation that included stiffened penalties for draft dodgers. That bill was reintroduced in February, but bogged down as MPs submitted more than 4000 amendments. It would further expand the draft by closing loopholes for men obtaining a second college degree or in instances when several men in a family sought exemptions to care for a disabled relative. A vote is expected this month.

It is unclear how quickly Ukraine will draft and train the additional troops, or whether they will be ready before the expected Russian offensive. The more comprehensive mobilisation bill that has yet to pass envisions three months of training for soldiers drafted during wartime.

“The decision is taken – it’s a good one, but it’s too late,” said Serhiy Hrabsky, a colonel and a commentator on the war for the Ukrainian news media.

And lowering the draft age alone will not resolve Ukraine’s looming need for fighters. In December, Zelensky said the military had asked to mobilise 450,000 to 500,000 soldiers. Ukraine’s military commander, General Oleksandr Syrsky, said last week the army had “significantly reduced” its request, without specifying a number.

Zelensky has said he does not intend to conscript women into the military, although women with medical educations are required to register for the draft.

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Ukraine’s total population of 25 and 26-year-olds was about 467,000 in 2022, the latest year when the government published population estimates, according to Natalia Tilikina, the director of Institute of Youth, a research group. But many are already serving in the military, living in occupied areas or outside Ukraine, or have jobs or disabilities that exempt them from conscription.

In formulating its mobilisation plans, Ukraine has had to balance military, economic and demographic considerations. Lowering the draft age will bring thousands of healthy and rested soldiers to the fight, but poses long-term risks for the population, given the country’s demographics.

As in most former Soviet states, Ukraine has a small generation of 20-year-olds because birthrates plummeted during the deep economic depression of the 1990s. Because of this demographic trough, the country has three times as many men in their 40s as in their 20s.

Drafting men starting at age 25, given the likely battle casualties, also risks further diminishing this small generation and potentially future birthrates, leaving the country with declines of working and draft-age men decades from now.

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At the outset of the war, men ages 27-60 were drafted and the average age in the military is currently over 40. Under martial law, all men 18-60 had already been prohibited from leaving the country in case the decision was made to draft them. Men and women can volunteer for military service starting at 18.

US Republican senator Lindsey Graham on a visit to Kyiv last month suggested that Ukraine dip into a younger population of men for the war. “You’re in a fight of your life, so you should be serving,” he said. “We need more people in the line.”

Politicians in Ukraine have become more vocal in their criticisms of Zelensky’s wartime leadership. In an interview broadcast this week on Al Jazeera, former president Petro Poroshenko vowed to run for a second term in a future election that he said should be held only after the war is over. Under martial law, elections in Ukraine are suspended.