In assessing his potential impact, initially it was thought Kennedy would siphon votes from Trump. After all, prominent right-wing opinion formers, such as Sean Hannity, Tucker Carlson and Steve Bannon, have given him airtime, and he even appeared on Infowars with Alex Jones, that septic sinkhole of misinformation. Last year, Bannon suggested RFK Jr should become Trump’s vice-presidential running mate.
Recently, however, polls have suggested he is drawing more Democratic support, especially among the young. In December, a poll showed him getting a staggering 40 per cent of voters aged between 18 and 34, and leading both Biden and Trump among voters under the age of 45. The appearance of youthfulness and masculinity has long been part of the Kennedy family’s mystique, and a workout video of this muscly septuagenarian pumping iron and grinding out push-ups, which he posted on social media, almost instantly went viral. Young men, who inhabit the “manosphere” online, have become some of his most admiring bros.
Democrats, of course, are still traumatised by the 2000 election, when the consumer advocate Ralph Nader cost Al Gore the presidency against George W. Bush. In Florida alone, where Bush’s official winning margin was just 537 votes, Nader received 97,488 votes. Nationally, Nader polled just 2.7 per cent of the vote. Yet that was more than enough to act as a spoiler for Al Gore.
Robert Kennedy is presently averaging close to 10 per cent. As election day approaches, support for third-party candidates often dwindles. But in a close election, where the outcome could be determined by shifts of a few thousand votes in a handful of key states, Kennedy will unquestionably be a major factor.
There are obstacles in his way. The Kennedy family, who remain staunchly loyal to their fellow Irish-American Joe Biden, have ostracised him. At a St Patrick’s Day event at the White House, they formed what looked like a shamrock guard around Biden. The mechanics of US democracy also threaten to hurl a spanner in the works. So far, RFK has gathered enough signatures to qualify for the ballot in just one state, Utah, although that number will doubtless grow.
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Democrats are hoping that when Kennedy faces tougher media scrutiny, and some of his offbeat views became more widely known, his appeal will fade. Yet that’s an optimistic take on the current state of US politics. It ignores that Kennedy’s popularity is but another reminder of how the fringe has folded into the mainstream.
Just witness the continued strength of Donald Trump, the frontrunner in the presidential race. Posting a video showing images of a hog-tied Joe Biden painted on the back of a pick-up truck barely registered on the Richter scale of Trumpian scandal.
In nobler times, the Kennedys personified America’s best self: the country’s dynamism, glamour, rationality, ambition and promise of immigrant success. These days, though, the USA seems otherworldly rather than exceptional. So much for passing the torch to a new generation. Robert Kennedy offers proof that even political aristocrats can morph into populist flame-throwers.
Nick Bryant, a former BBC Washington correspondent, is the author of the upcoming book, The Forever War: America’s Unending Conflict with Itself.