Notwithstanding all of Trump’s efforts to delay these criminal trials, there is one case that will get under way beginning on Monday. A year ago, Trump was indicted by the Manhattan district attorney on charges of falsifying business records and making illegal payments just before the 2016 election, to women with whom he was allegedly involved, to cover up news of those affairs to protect his chances of winning the election.

In October 2016, one month before the election, a tape of Trump bragging about his ability to pursue sexual acts with women, claiming that “when you are a star, they let you do it,” was leaked to The Washington Post. This Access Hollywood tape, so named for a television program for which Trump was being interviewed, rocked his campaign. The head of the Republican National Committee, Reince Priebus, condemned Trump, along with House Speaker Paul Ryan, Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell and former presidential candidate Senator John McCain. Trump’s vice-presidential running mate, Mike Pence, said: “I do not condone his remarks and cannot defend them.”

The theory of the case brought by Alvin Bragg, the Manhattan District Attorney, was that Trump wanted to contain the damage from the Access Hollywood tapes by buying the silence of other women who might come forward to share their sexual engagements with Trump – because their torpedoes could sink his campaign.

“The People of the State of New York against Donald J. Trump” charges that: “The defendant DONALD J. TRUMP … orchestrated a scheme with others to influence the 2016 presidential election by identifying and purchasing negative information about him to suppress its publication and benefit the Defendant’s electoral prospects.”

The indictment was greeted with scorn and derision by many, that after two impeachments and the explosive House Select Committee hearings and report on the January 6 insurrection, this was a nothing-burger old news indictment that could hardly bring Trump and his atrocities to a proper reckoning with the rule of law.

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But this trial is a serious threat to Trump, legally and politically. While he will use every recess in the proceedings to dominate cable news and to raise money from his base, it is not a presidential look. Neither are his vicious attacks on the families of the judge and the prosecutor. Trump may yet be fined – or even jailed – for contempt of court. Trump is required to be in that courtroom for weeks, keeping him off the campaign trail by day.

If there is any case made for New York tabloids, this is it. The testimony from porn star Stormy Daniels, ex-Playboy model Karen McDougal, and Trump fixer-turned-traitor Michael Cohen will be riveting and salacious in the extreme.

But Trump’s cunning is shameless.

He knows he cannot afford for his personal immorality to cost support from evangelical Christians, whose loyalty has been instrumental in Trump’s success. He took out insurance. Just before Easter, Trump unveiled and hawked his special edition Bible. “Let’s Make America pray again … I encourage you to get a copy of the God Bless The USA Bible. All Americans need a Bible in their home, and I have many. It’s my favourite book.”

Trump does not need to be convicted of a high crime to stumble. Polls clearly show that a felony conviction will seriously cut into Trump’s support with Republican voters. Insurrection is complicated. But everyone gets a sex and money scandal. If Trump is guilty, every Republican who has endorsed Trump, and his vice-presidential pick when chosen, will have to defend what a jury found indefensible.

This may be Trump’s only trial before the election. The 77-year-old urgently needs an acquittal to show once and for all that his “unjust” prosecution proves he is being horrifically, politically persecuted by Biden. For Trump, acquittal will be vindication, and show he deserves to be returned to the White House.

Bruce Wolpe is a senior fellow at the United States Studies Centre. He has served on the Democratic staff in the US Congress and as chief of staff to former prime minister Julia Gillard.

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