Posted: 2024-04-15 19:00:00

On the level of domestic politics, he’d be sure to find favour with his far-right coalition partners. His national security minister Itamar Ben-Gvir, for instance, says that “the boss must go nuts” in retaliating to Iran’s barrage. Lacking prudence, but not enthusiasm.

An enervated Israeli people would not enjoy having to endure more danger from Iran and its proxies, but could be expected to support a mission to retard the Iranian nuclear program.

Israeli National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir says “the boss should go nuts”.

Israeli National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir says “the boss should go nuts”. Credit: Bloomberg

On the other hand, Israel’s indispensable ally does not want Netanyahu to strike back. The US is not interested in a full-scale Middle East war. For several reasons.

First, Joe Biden is heading to an election in seven months. He does not want to be entangled in an avoidable war in support of anyone, and Netanyahu in particular is not a popular figure with much of the Democratic Party’s support base because of his mass killing of Palestinian civilians in Gaza. Biden wants maximum Democrat voter turnout on November 5.

And note that Donald Trump in recent weeks has qualified his support for Israel in Gaza – Trump has called for Israel to “get it over with, and let’s get back to peace and stop killing people. And that’s a very simple statement. Get it over with”.

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Second, a full-scale regional war in the Middle East could drive up oil prices, rekindle inflation and crash global share markets. Iran produces four million barrels of oil a day, about 5 per cent of global output.

Plus Iran’s Houthi proxies in Yemen already have made trouble for international shipping in the Red Sea. They could be expected to turn their policy of mere harassment into havoc.

Third, America is busy. Its political and military systems are straining to keep supporting Ukraine while simultaneously trying to gird for future crises with the country it has called its “pacing threat” – China. A package of $US95 billion in aid for Israel, Ukraine and Taiwan has been stalled in the US House of Representatives for two months.

So what, you might ask? Netanhayu so far has demonstrated near-contempt for the wishes and worries of the US in pursuing his Gaza war. But the weekend has illuminated the real power and value of Israel’s allies in a crisis. Of the more than 300 weapons flung from Iran at Israel, the Israelis said that 99 per cent were intercepted.

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But not by Israel alone. It turns out that the Americans intercepted more than a quarter – 80 of Iran’s armed drones and at least six of its ballistic missiles, according to US Central Command.

Other nations helped defend Israel, too. “We are working closely with the US, UK and France who acted tonight,” said Israel’s Defence Ministry. “This partnership has always been close, but tonight it manifested itself in an unusual way.”

Unusual indeed. Jordan was involved, too. The net result of this allied effort was to render Israel just about bulletproof. Not only did these allies play a critical role, but we’ve now learnt that other Israeli neighbours also have been lining up to help defend it.

The Wall Street Journal reported on the weekend that the US last month secretly convened the military leadership of Israel, Egypt, Jordan, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia and Qatar to discuss coordinated plans for the defence of Israel in a nascent air defence network.

So Netanyahu could choose to strike Iran and its nuclear facilities in particular, but he must weigh the risk of alienating the US and other allies. Because without allies, we now know, Israel would not be so bulletproof.

Peter Hartcher is international editor.

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