The strike also destroyed a building that was part of the Iranian embassy complex, normally considered off-limits to attack. Israeli officials said the building was diplomatic in name only, and was used as an Iranian military and intelligence base, making it a legitimate target.
Iran, which signalled that it saw the attack as an Israeli break in the norms of the shadow war, felt compelled to retaliate strongly, analysts said, to establish deterrence and maintain credibility with its proxies and hard-line supporters.
Israel did not want Iran to conclude that it could now attack Israeli territory in response to an Israeli strike on Iranian interests in a third country, some of the officials said, summarising the internal Israeli debate. But, they added, Israel also did not want and could not afford a major conflict with Iran while still fighting a war in Gaza and skirmishing with Iranian proxies along its borders.
The members of Israel’s small but fractious war cabinet, officials said, were considering options big enough to send a clear message to Iran that such attacks would not go unanswered, but not so big as to spark a major escalation.
The four options
The officials described the following options, and their downsides, from which the Israeli leaders were choosing a response:
- Conduct an aggressive strike on an Iranian target, such as a Revolutionary Guard base, in a country other than Iran such as Syria. (The drawback is that it lacks the symmetry of responding to a direct attack on Israel with a direct attack on Iran.)
- Strike a mostly symbolic target inside Iran. (Such a move would likely require US consultation and would risk angering the Americans who have advised against such a strike.)
- Conduct a cyberattack on Iran’s infrastructure. (Doing so could expose Israel’s cyber capabilities prematurely and would not be an in-kind response to a major airstrike.)
- Accelerate small attacks inside Iran, including targeted assassinations, carried out by Mossad. (Israel does not claim responsibility for such attacks, so they fail to match the public nature of Iran’s strike.)
Other Israeli options include doing nothing, or adopting a more diplomatic approach, including a boycott of Iran by the United Nations Security Council, other officials said.
At least two members of the war cabinet had argued at the time of the Iranian attack that Israel should respond immediately, two Israeli officials said, arguing that a rapid response in self-defence would give such a counter-attack obvious legitimacy.
Yet after three days of meetings, the war cabinet has yet to decide on a response.
The five-member cabinet met with security officials for two hours of consultations on Wednesday (AEST), according to one official, and they were expected to convene again on Thursday.
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America preaches calm
US officials have publicly and privately tried to persuade Israel that it does not need to retaliate for the Iranian strike.
Netanyahu, they have argued, can “take the win” earned by a successful defence against the Iranian onslaught, which caused minimal damage and injured just one person, a young Bedouin girl.
But US officials have also said they understand that persuading Israel not to retaliate may be impossible.
American officials have said they understand Israeli officials believe they must respond to a direct strike from Iran on Israel in a way that the world can see. A covert attack by Israel against Iran, US officials said, would most likely not be enough to satisfy Netanyahu’s coalition partners or the current Israeli government.
Should that counter-attack prompt another round of Iranian missiles and drones, US officials said, American warplanes and naval vessels would once again come to the defence of their ally against their chief adversary in the Middle East.
Sanctions alternative
The US is also backing diplomatic efforts to pressure and punish Iran, including by imposing tougher sanctions on the country in the coming days, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said at a news conference in Washington on Tuesday.
As Israel faces pressure from its allies to avert a broader conflict with Iran, several countries, including Russia, China and Japan, have also been urging Iran to avoid further escalation.
And the European Union was considering expanding economic sanctions against Iran’s weapons program to punish it for last weekend’s attack on Israel and try to prevent any escalation of violence across the Middle East, the EU’s top diplomat said.
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“I’m not trying to exaggerate when I say that, in the Middle East, we are at the edge of a very deep precipice,” Josep Borrell Fontelles, the EU foreign policy chief, said after a hastily called meeting of European diplomats to discuss the crisis.