Posted: 2024-05-07 03:00:53

The Victorian budget has confirmed delays to the Airport Rail Link, as the state government outlines its plan to tackle the state's rising record debt.

Treasurer Tim Pallas's 10th budget has still contained plenty of spending, with no new major taxes introduced.

Parents will get the biggest budget sweetener, with $400 credits to help with education expenses for children at government schools, as Premier Jacinta Allan tries to focus on families in her first budget in the top job.

Victorian ratepayers have also been asked to chip in through an increase to the fire services levy.

Despite the rhetoric of better economic management, Victoria's net debt continues to climb.

Net debt is now forecast to hit $187.8 billion by 2027-28, when Victorians will be paying roughly $25 million each day on interest payments.

The budget faces a $2.2 billion deficit this financial year but is projected to return to a surplus of $1.5 billion by 2025-26.

The treasurer has defended the budget as one that strikes a responsible balance without taking "the economic momentum out of the economy".

Mr Pallas said his government was focused on moving past COVID debt by reducing net debt as a proportion of the state's economy.

Budget figures show net debt represented roughly 20 per cent of gross state product (GSP) in 2022-23, and is set to climb to 25.2 per cent in 2026-27, before dropping slightly to 25.1 per cent the following year.

When pressed on the impact of that debt on future generations, the treasurer said it was important the figures were viewed in context.

The exterior of the Victorian Parliament building.

Several of the budget measures are aimed at reining in the state's debt.(ABC News: Patrick Rocca)

"I can assure Victorians that our priorities are on the commitments we gave them and recognise the material circumstances of the time and do no harm to the continuing growth and resurgence of the Victorian economy," he said.

Mr Pallas said a reduction in government advertising and selling government office spaces were among the measures that would keep government expenditure at an average growth rate of 2.2 per cent per year.

"Pretty profound in anyone's language," he said.

"You haven't seen that in this state for 15 years."

Airport 'stand-off' sees delay of at least four years

Some big-ticket infrastructure items have also had their timelines pushed back, including the Airport Rail Link, which the government has indicated will be delayed by at least four years.

Mr Pallas said that was due to the "stand-off" with the airport over the station's design that was unlikely to be resolved soon.

A digital render of a train station at Melbourne Airport.

The state government and airport have disagreed over whether the station should be above or below ground.(Supplied: Victorian Government)

Melbourne Airport, which has long advocated for an underground station rather than one above ground, responded to Mr Pallas's comments shortly after the budget was handed down.

"Melbourne Airport was part of a consortium that offered up to $7 billion towards an underground airport station and express tracks from Sunshine," a spokesperson for the airport said.

"The state government rejected this. The timing of the project has always been a matter for government."

On Tuesday night, a Victorian government spokesperson said the airport's previous consortium proposal was a "terrible deal" for Victorian taxpayers.

"The proposal would have privatised the Geelong line for 40 years and charged Victorians a fee to access their own rail services," they said.

"Even the former Federal Liberal/National government recognised that this $20 billion proposal did not stack up."

An aerial view of a complex construction project beside the West Gate Freeway.

The West Gate Tunnel is among the government's significant infrastructure projects.(ABC News: Patrick Rocca)

A level crossing removal project for the busy Upfield train line, which runs through Brunswick in Melbourne's inner-north, has also been delayed until 2030.

But $996 million has been set aside to get ready to open the Metro Tunnel rail project and the West Gate Tunnel next year.

The budget also set aside $139 million in a bid to attract and retain more teachers in Victorians schools.

The measure includes $63 million to go towards the mental health and wellbeing of school staff.

Analysis: Victoria's 2024 budget dreams big and forgets debt

The budget allocated $211 million towards interventions aimed at preventing family violence and help victim-survivors.

This includes a further investment in the government's Respectful Relationships program, which has been rolled out at some schools.

But CEO of Sexual Assault Services Victoria Kathleen Maltzahn said the urgency of the situation should have prompted a greater investment.

Credit rating agency says 'thin' forecast surplus key to maintaining AA rating

Credit rating agency S&P Global Ratings downgraded Victoria's credit rating from AAA to AA in 2020 — the lowest of any state or territory in Australia.

The agency said this year's budget confirmed the government's accounts were in "large structural fiscal cash deficit".

"This is the highest among the Australian states and stems from successive operating deficits and its large capex [capital expenditures] since the pandemic hit in late fiscal 2020," the agency said in a statement after the budget was released.

"Debt to operating revenues has almost tripled since this time. Victoria's serviceability costs are also rising.

"On the flipside, we believe Victoria maintains strong access to global capital markets.

"This will allow the government to fund its budget and avoid any acute stress scenario, despite rising interest expenses and market volatility."

The agency said it expected Victoria's AA credit rating would be supported by the state's wealthy and diverse economy, but pressure on the rating could build if the "thin" operating surplus forecast in the budget was not achieved.

John Pesutto sitting in Question Time putting the palm of his hand to his forehead.

Opposition Leader John Pesutto has accused the government of financial incompetence.(ABC News: Danielle Bonica)

State Opposition Leader John Pesutto said the budget was a missed opportunity to make life easier for Victorians and change the direction of the state.

"With record debt, record interest, record taxes, service cuts and poorer outcomes, it's clear Labor cannot manage money and Victorians are paying the price," he said.

Economist says little 'wriggle room' for government if 'things turned sour'

RMIT economist David Hayward said the Victorian government had handed down "another generous budget".

"It's surprised me how much the government has chosen to spend on new output … this is a big-spending budget again," Dr Hayward said.

"The risk with the budget is that they haven't really got much wriggle room if things turned sour.

"I think that what they're betting on is that people will prefer to see the extra spending on things that matter most to them.

"If things do turn sour it might be a different story."

Monash University economist Zac Gross said the budget had demonstrated some spending restraint, but a sustained effort was needed in the coming years.

"Debt payments are reaching record levels," Dr Gross said.

"We are on track as a state to spend more on interest payments than we do on transportation or social services.

"If we want to avoid that fate, we need spending restraint not just today, but for the next few budgets to come."

Worker shortages drive delays across mental health, pre-prep programs

The government will also scrap the COVID-era sick pay guarantee, which was introduced to assist casual workers who needed to isolate while unwell.

As recently as last year, the government had considered extending the scheme permanently through an industry levy, but the budget papers confirmed it would be discontinued.

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