As the ink dries on the federal government's pre-election budget filled with sweeteners for voters, Western Australia and Queensland are emerging as the states that will yet again decide who forms government.
But in the places both Peter Dutton and Anthony Albanese need to win — what do people really think? We asked them.
'Better than a kick in the pants'
The $300 energy bill rebate included in Treasurer Jim Chalmers's third federal budget perhaps cut through the most to everyday Australians, with the lure of tax cuts also top of mind.
Would-be prime minister Dutton in turn promised migration reforms and spending cuts aimed at reducing inflation if elected at the polls next year.
But in Dutton's own seat of Dickson, in Brisbane's north-west, will that be enough to sway teacher Lauren Quigg?
"Every cent counts, but in the grand scheme of things, I do not think it is enough," she said of the federal budget's cost-of-living relief measures.
Dickson is the sunshine state's most marginal seat — held by Mr Dutton by a 1.7 per cent margin — and pensioner Marilyn Oulds said she was still on the fence.
"It's better than a kick in the pants, and every little bit helps," she said, acknowledging the energy bill relief would help.
Ms Oulds is a true blue swinging voter.
"On election time we sort of think, 'okay, they've promised to do X, Y, Z … let's see if that happens' ... because you can always change your vote the next time if they don't deliver on their promises."
Dickson electrician and new mother Stephanie Siggurs thinks the federal government had failed to provide the light at the end of the tunnel many were seeking.
"I think it is just getting worse as time goes on, and they do not know how to fix it," she said.
Voters want long-term help
Some 4,500 kilometres away in WA, business owners in Bullsbrook within the marginal seat of Durack will be looking for anything that can ease cost-of-living pressures on their customers and encourage them to spend more when deciding where to cast their ballot.
Bullsbrook was once the heart of former Attorney-General Christian Porter's seat of Pearce but became the very southern tip of the massive electorate that is Durack after a redistribution.
Liberal Melissa Price hung on to Durack after the 2022 election despite a swing of more than nine per cent that turned her very safe seat marginal, with a 4.27 per cent buffer.
Bullsbrook Landscaping Supplies owner Roger Harris switched to vote Labor at the last election and has welcomed the electricity rebate in the budget as a "short term" help, but lower interest rates and inflation are what he really wants.
He has seen some customers pull back from spending.
"Business is still okay, but I know that people around here especially are feeling the pinch, you know," he said.
What actually happens before the next election will sway Mr Harris's vote.
"It depends on what's on offer," he said.
"Obviously customers, they're massively important to the success of this business here.
"I mean, if they're affected by it, it will affect our business."
Mudassir Siddique bought Giacomo's Farm cafe three months ago and wants to see more people move to Bullsbrook, to build more houses and deliver him more customers.
Mr Siddique said the stage three tax cuts, electricity rebates, and Commonwealth rent assistance in the budget were "pretty good".
"If they can help us out and other people, as well, to bring the interest rates down, and more people can come here and get new houses and we could get more business, that would be awesome," he said.
Political analyst Peter Kennedy said this week's budget was east coast focused and would fail to win over voters in WA.
"We've already had at our payout, the $400 [state government energy rebate] has been promised. As far as energy consumers in the west are concerned, we're well looked after," he said.
"As far as the federal government is concerned, they don't take that into account because they're just thinking about the east coast."
Why do WA and QLD votes matter?
Election analyst Antony Green said what happens at the polling booth in WA would have a significant impact on the outcome of the 2025 federal election.
"The Albanese government has a majority entirely on the back of a record win in WA at the last election," he said.
"Now if there's any return to normality in the west, Labor will lose seats and lose its majority.
"So, it'll be looking elsewhere to gain seats, one of those places is Queensland, where Labor, had a very poor result last time, historically does poorly, but Labor would be hoping to pick up a few marginals."
Mr Green said federal Labor would be looking to regain seats like Leichhardt in Queensland's Far North, and the outer-suburban edges of Brisbane.
But he said a Labor victory in Dickson was unlikely.
"If Peter Dutton were to lose Dickson at the next election, it would be a sign the Albanese government has been re-elected," he said.
"But ... Peter Dutton has held one of the most marginal seats in Queensland at several elections, and despite all the talk of Labor winning a seat, they haven't been able to do so."