Australia’s coal-dominated energy sector is undergoing a rapid transformation, with at least half of the remaining 14 coal-fired generators on the eastern seaboard due to close within the next decade, while renewable energy’s share of the energy mix continues to grow.
However, governments are becoming increasingly nervous that not enough renewable energy, storage and transmission projects are being built to keep power supplies and prices stable as the end of coal draws closer.
‘Australia’s great energy transition – from fossil fuels to renewables – is not going well.’
Tony Wood, energy director, Grattan Institute
While network operator ElectraNet has completed construction of the 200-kilometre South Australian component of EnergyConnect, Transgrid said it continued to progress work on the 700-kilometre NSW section.
Transgrid chief executive Brett Redman said the first stage of its project, previously scheduled to be in service for the June quarter of this year, was now due to be in service in the September quarter, at which time AEMO would commence inter-network testing.
The second stage of its project would be completed and in service by the June quarter of 2026, Redman said.
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“Our key stakeholders, including the relevant government departments of SA, NSW and the Commonwealth, as well as the relevant ministers, have been advised,” he said.
As energy security fears build on the eastern seaboard, the Minns government in NSW has been in confidential talks with Origin Energy over potential financial support to prolong the operation of the Eraring plant on the shores of Lake Macquarie.
The Victorian government has already intervened to ensure two of its biggest coal generators – EnergyAustralia’s Yallourn and AGL’s Loy Yang A – do not shut prematurely.
“Australia’s great energy transition – from fossil fuels to renewables – is not going well,” said Tony Wood, energy director at research organisation the Grattan Institute.
“Governments have lost faith in the market being able to deliver enough electricity to the right places at the right time, consumers are fuming about high power prices, and investors have been spooked by frequent and unpredictable government interventions.”
The update to AEMO’s Electricity Statement of Opportunities report, which is typically published annually, only considers existing projects or those it considers to be “committed” or “anticipated”.
Westerman said the reliability outlook improved when factoring in possible energy projects deemed “actionable”, as well as the potential new capacity set to be brought to market via the first stage of the federal government’s capacity investment scheme, which targets 32 gigawatts of new backed-up renewable energy by 2030.