Posted: 2024-05-20 21:54:16

Minutes from the central bank's most recent cash rate meeting earlier this month show that the board considered lifting rates after "most of the data" was "stronger than expected".

In particular, the RBA called out inflation data for the March quarter, which showed inflation had "declined more slowly than anticipated", and noted that "there may be somewhat less slack in the economy than previously assessed".

"Raising the cash rate at this meeting could be appropriate if the Board formed a view that the judgements underpinning the staff forecasts risked being overly optimistic about the forces that would drive down inflation, leaving the balance of risks tilted to the upside," the minutes said.

"A higher cash rate might also be required, even with ongoing weakness in aggregate demand, if other factors slowed the pace of disinflation.

"Members observed that this could occur if trend productivity growth turned out to be weaker than assumed, unless wages growth were to moderate in response.

"A drift higher in inflation expectations, should it occur, would also make it more costly to return inflation to target."

Ultimately though, the central bank opted to leave rates unchanged at 4.35% for another meeting — but used its post-meeting statement to warn that risks around inflation "had risen somewhat".

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