The Maroons and Blues middle forwards present two very contrasting styles: mobility versus power.
On the Queensland side stands a rotation that thrives off the hard yards – averaging more tackles a game collectively this season than their forthcoming rivals.
Yet, opposing them looms an engine room, with two extra forwards named on the bench – boasting more than 224 kilograms as a unit over their counterparts.
That size difference becomes more noticeable without injured Maroons aggressors Tino Fa’asuamaleaui, Thomas Flegler and Tom Gilbert.
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The Queensland core have a fit pack, with suggestions their aim will be to keep the ball in play and wear the Blues down. But statistically, New South Wales are up to task – their middle forwards averaging slightly more minutes a game this year (61.68 to the Maroons’ 59.56).
So what is the solution for the Maroons?
“If you don’t stop moving, you put yourself in the picture and you give yourself an opportunity,” Cotter said.
“At the end of the day, that’s what wins big footy games – [those] who can do those small efforts, win the small battles and do it for 80 minutes.
“Whoever does that for longer than the other team, they normally come out on top.”
When Maroons coach Billy Slater dropped a bombshell and announced David Fifita would not be taking the field for game one, he alluded to the “standards” the Gold Coast Titans’ wrecking ball had not attained this year.
David Fifita (right) was a shock exclusion from the Maroons squad. Perhaps he thought it would bring out the best in Reece Walsh (left).Credit: Getty
A closer look at the statistics tells part of the story, and how Slater hopes to approach Wednesday night’s clash.
Despite his physicality, Fifita’s average play-the-ball speed sits at 3.94 seconds this season, significantly higher than the forwards who will go to war in Sydney.
Ahead of last year’s grand final between the Broncos and Panthers, NRL Immortal Andrew Johns posed a question to Slater on Nine: How do you stop Reece Walsh?
The champion fullback hinted that it was about shutting his chances down early – slowing the ruck and restricting the time the first receiver has to unleash the superstar 21-year-old.
That may have been part of Slater’s thinking, combined with the prowess of hooker Harry Grant from quick play-the-balls (87 dummy-half runs, first in the competition).
New South Wales will boast a pack that collectively plays the ball faster. As the game wears on, the speed at which Queensland get back into the defensive line could prove telling.
Perhaps this was another “standard” Slater spoke of, with Maroons prop Moeaki Fotuaika also suggesting the game plan would be simple: “It’s about being aggressive and fast with our movements, with and without the ball.”
If Slater is searching for ruck speed, two key Queensland strengths could be what breaks the game wide open if they succeed in that facet.
Despite the muscle the Maroons middles will concede, star lock Pat Carrigan has emerged as the competition leader for post-contact metres, running for 858m, at 71.5m a game, and a little more than 4.5m with each hit-up.
Only Blues’ giants Payne Haas and Spencer Leniu average more post-contact metres per run (4.77m and 5.52m, respectively), but neither get through the same volume of work, nor minutes, as Carrigan.
On the back of that extra yardage, even faster play-the-ball speeds against retreating defensive lines ensue, opening the door for second-phase opportunities – a domain in which the Maroons appear to have the edge.
In Carrigan and J’maine Hopgood, Slater will employ two of the leading exponents of offloads. And the way in which they work in tandem could truly ignite Grant’s attack.
It could also offer a new dimension to that of Walsh, who now has teams on alert for what he can do on the edges rather than through the guts of the field.
“I think that’s something that has just been a part of my game … [but] it’s not something that I go out there and premeditate,” Hopgood said.
“I don’t go out there looking for it, but if the opportunity comes, I’ll take it.”
Ultimately, this looms as a battle that former Maroons enforcer Josh McGuire says will either be decided early, or at the last minute.
“The kicking game will be everything for momentum and field position. If we nullify their back five, I think they [the Blues] will rely on them heavily,” McGuire said.
“If we get them in the arm wrestle, take them to deep waters and keep the ball in play, the more it works in our favour.
“If they [the Blues] get early momentum, it could be a long night.”