While falling coal prices will leave a $4.3 billion revenue hole next financial year, this will be partially offset by a $2.1 billion lift in tax revenue thanks to strong workforce figures and related payroll tax, along with stamp duty through high property prices.

All three have helped turn an expected $2.2 billion deficit for 2023-24 into a modest surplus of $564 million – the third consecutive budget in which revenue has outweighed costs, but a far cry from the record $12 billion boasted in 2022-23.

The state expects to run a $2.6 billion deficit in the 2024-25 financial year, and a $515 million one in 2025-26, before returning to surplus thanks to a “smarter spending taskforce” to drive $3 billion worth of savings over four years – without job losses.

The Queensland Revenue Office will also get extra funding to bring in $970 million more from tax enforcement and debt recovery over the same period.

By then, net debt – the government’s preferred measure, which excludes state-owned corporations – is now expected to be $13 billion lower than previously forecast, at $60 billion. Total debt is also expected to come in slightly lower than forecast, at $172 billion.