As a disclaimer, I used to work as a producer on The Morning Show, and in my experience, its audience is used to engaging with the program. They enter competitions and buy products from advertorials. While the viewership may not be as big as ABC News Breakfast, or I’m A Celeb, they are likely to respond to a campaign encouraging them to vote.

Irwin’s best shot comes at mobilising his enormous social following. With six million Instagram followers, he dwarfs Armstrong (169,000) and Emdur (171,000) on social media. However, it will come down to how much effort he puts in for people to vote. It’s safe to assume his followers skew younger, and there’s a chance they won’t be as familiar with the Logies.

Also worth noting is that while a large social media following can help (two-time gold winner Blake has over a million followers), it’s not always the case. Last year, Celeste Barber campaigned hard to win most popular actress to her nine million Instagram followers but was beaten by Kitty Flanagan.

At the time of writing, online bookies have Armstrong and Irwin as the favourites, but my gut says Emdur might pull off a nostalgia win.

The dark horses

If we can’t have Hamish from Hamish and Andy, well, at least we have Andy. Much has been made of Blake being “snubbed,” but gold nominees have to agree to be put forward for nomination. Given Blake is nominated for most popular presenter – but Andy isn’t – we can safely assume Blake asked not to be put forward for the gold.

Andy could still benefit from the power of the Hamish and Andy brand, including their top-rated Listnr podcast, which sits atop the Australian Podcast Ranker monthly with over a million listeners. He will no doubt receive the backing of Blake, who remains one of Australia’s most influential media figures, while also tapping into his social following (409,000 followers).

Meanwhile, Asher Keddie won gold in 2013, but since then, only one other actor has won the award: Samuel Johnson in 2017. However, Keddie’s role in the Binge series Strife, based on Mia Freedman’s book Work Strife Balance, brings with it the backing of Freedman and the all-conquering Mamamia community. If you need proof of Mamamia’s influence, just take a look at the Australian podcast charts. Freedman has cultivated a rusted-on and dedicated community that could boost Keddie into the conversation if they decide to push.

The long shots

Kruger was a controversial winner last year, and it’s difficult to imagine her going back to back, especially when Seven’s resources will likely centre on Emdur. As for Morris, this is the third year running she has been up for the gold, and it will probably be a case of third-time unlucky.

At the announcement, Morris said she was proud of her third Gold Logie nomination but that women were “still in the minority”, as four of the nominees are men, and three are women. Unfortunately for Morris, it doesn’t help matters that one of those men happens to be her I’m A Celeb co-host Robert Irwin.

The 64th TV WEEK Logie Awards will be broadcast exclusively on Channel Seven and 7plus on Sunday 18 August with comedian Sam Pang as host.