What did we just see – the spectacle of an emperor with no clothes, or an aged president unfit to continue for a second term in office?

Make no mistake. This was an outright win by Donald Trump – because it was an outright fail by Joe Biden. Trump confounded Biden at every opportunity, from inflation to immigration to America’s standing in the world. It does not matter whether Trump lied – and he lied constantly – it only mattered that he kept pushing the hottest political buttons that drive the most votes in order to deliver the election to him in November.

As the two presidents stepped onto the stage, the race had been static for nearly a year. Biden and Trump have been tied head-to-head in the national popular vote in the mid-40 per cent range. Trump has consistent leads in most of the swing states – anywhere from two to seven points. If the election were held before this debate began, Trump would win.

Going into this debate, Trump enjoyed a significant lead over Biden in support on who is best to manage the three biggest issues: the economy and inflation, immigration, and crime. Biden does better on Trump’s threats to democracy and abortion rights. But Trump’s issues are stronger drivers of the outcome of this election.

This meant that it would not be enough for Biden to simply draw a tie with Trump. Biden needed a decisive win over Trump to change the current trajectory of this race. Biden needed not a referendum on his presidency but a dominant contrast with Trump. He needed to show that he is in command, with a clear mind and firm course for the country’s future, and that Trump is unfit for office as a convicted felon, too extreme in his views, and with policies way outside the mainstream of America.

For Biden, that was the hope. The Biden comeback and a Trump takedown had to begin now. They both died on that CNN stage. Trump made sure this debate was a referendum on Biden.

From the outset, Biden looked old and frail. The visual contrasts favoured Trump. Biden was pallid. In listening to Trump, Biden would look down, or simply stare in wide-eyed disbelief at the shameless distortions of history that came out of the gatling gun of Trump’s mouth. Trump was always in motion as he spoke; Biden looked wooden.

And then early on, Biden froze in responding on taxes and health care. Trump – as canny and cunning as ever as the streetfighter he is – interjected that he did not know what Biden was saying, that he did not understand what he was saying. From then on, it was a relentless slide downhill with a couple of bumps of recovery on Trump’s insults on veterans, his affinity for NATO, his cruelty on abortion.