Brisbane City Council has claimed more than 1 million passengers could be stranded at bus stops during the state government's 50c fares trial if patronage increases by just 10 per cent.
The council's LNP administration released its own data to highlight the impact of boosted patronage on its buses as it made renewed calls for extra funding from the Labor government.
However, the figures have been disputed by public transport agency Translink, which said its initial modelling did not support data released by the council.
According to the council, a 10 per cent lift in patronage with no extra bus services would result in 12,006 passengers being left behind at bus stops each weekday.
The council has indicated that would equate to 1.5 million people over the course of the six-month trial of 50c fares.
Of the 224 routes operated by the council, they expect 113 would exceed demand if patronage climbed by 10 per cent – although not all services on the routes would be over capacity.
Transport chair Ryan Murphy said the council wanted the state government to add more bus capacity ahead of the 50c fares trial kicking off on August 5.
"Brisbane City Council is the largest public transport provider in the state by patronage and we are saying this trial will not work without additional services," he said.
"We don't want 50c fares to become one of the biggest public policy failings in Queensland history.
"We want this to work, but for it to work, we need to add new capacity into the system now — and we've got just five weeks to make that happen."
The council has not shared its modelling with the state government but said it would brief Translink on Thursday.
A Translink spokesperson said patronage across all modes of public transport in South East Queensland was at 87 per cent of pre-Covid levels, which meant there was capacity on many services across the region.
"Translink's initial modelling does not support BCC's claims about the overcrowding and Translink has requested a meeting with BCC to discuss their modelling and the assumptions they have used," they said.
"It is important to note that patronage on BCC buses has not returned to pre-COVID levels, yet service levels have not been cut by the state government to account for reduced demand.
"There are about eight million fewer passenger trips on BCC buses in 2023/24 compared to 2018/19."
The spokesperson said preparations were underway ahead of the 50c fares trial, including ramping up Translink's operations centre and identifying additional parking options for commuters.
They also said rail replacement buses would be available for deployment.
In a statement, Transport Minister Bart Mellish said the government wanted to work with all public transport operators, including the council, in lead up to the launch of 50c fares.
"Everyone I talk to is looking forward to this Australian-first initiative to ease cost of living pressures," he said.
The council has been in negotiations with the state government over bus funding ahead of the launch of Brisbane Metro services later this year.
The council said it initially asked the state government to chip in an extra $91 million per year over the next five years to fund bus services.
The state government has offered the council a one-off payment of $50 million.
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