A fierce voter backlash across the United Kingdom will reduce the number of Tory MPs to a record low, with millions seeking fresh leadership after a tumultuous period that included Britain’s departure from the European Union, political infighting and scandal that led to four prime ministers in five years, the pandemic, war in Ukraine and a cost-of-living crisis.
The result will likely resonate around the world, with political power swinging back to an internationalist, centre-left party at a time when right-wing populists are advancing in many countries.
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An exit poll by Ipsos UK for Sky News/BBC/ITV News, coinciding with the end of voting at 10pm local time, forecasts Labour will win 410 of the 650 seats in the House of Commons. It is an estimated 170-seat majority and a win just shy of the 2001 and 1997 elections, when Tony Blair won 412 and 418 seats respectively.
It predicts the Conservatives will be relegated to just 131 seats, down by more than 200 from 365 at the previous election, after a six-week catalogue of errors and self-inflicted damage. Their previous worst result at a general election was 156 seats in 1906.
Defence Secretary Grant Shapps, former Justice Secretary Alex Chalk and Leader of the Commons Penny Mordaunt, who was once viewed as a future leader, are among a slew of senior Conservatives to lose their seats.
Starmer will officially become the 58th person to lead Britain later in the day when he is formally invited to form government by the King at Buckingham Palace.
It is a personal triumph for him, having taken over the party’s leadership in 2020 after the party’s worst election defeat in almost a century. He will be just the seventh Labour prime minister in history and the fourth man to lead them from opposition into Downing Street.
The centre-left Liberal Democrats (61) and right-wing populist Reform UK (13) are also set to win seats in almost record numbers.
Reform UK leader Nigel Farage won his first seat in the House of Commons on his eighth attempt.
“There is a massive gap on the cent right of British politics and my job is to fill it and that’s exactly what I’m going to do,” Farage said after the result for Clacton-on-Sea was announced.
Nigel Farage, second right, at Clacton Leisure Centre in Clacton.Credit: AP
“My plan is to build a mass national movement over the course of the next few years and hopefully be big enough to challenge the general election properly in 2029.”
Former Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn, expelled from his own party after 41 years as an MP, pulled off a shock win in Islington North, where he ran as an independent. Beating Labour candidate Praful Nargund by 24,120 votes to 16,873, he said: “This result is to me a resounding message from the people of Islington that they want something different, they want something better.”
Courtiers have cleared two slots in the King’s diary on Friday, with Sunak to be invited to Buckingham Palace first.
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Starmer will arrive at the palace at midday, with his first official meeting with the King and his new prime minister known as the “kissing of hands”, although in practical terms it is more likely to feature a bow, if a man, or curtsy if a woman.
On arrival at the palace, the new prime minister will be greeted at the sovereign’s entrance by Sir Clive Alderton, the King’s private secretary, and Lieutenant Commander Will Thornton of the Fleet Air Arm, the King’s equerry.
Starmer is expected to then address the media outside Number 10 Downing Street, where he will move in with his family following the swift transfer of power.