The first team to install a “sea wall” defence to counter the surges of momentum in the modern game will win the NRL grand final.
It’s easier said than done. Momentum is such a powerful force that defensive-minded coaches, such as the Storm’s Craig Bellamy, are as hapless in stopping a tsunami of tries as King Canute was in holding back the tide.
The pendulum between attack and defence in today’s game has tilted strongly to the team with the ball, leading to some of the big scores each round. It’s partly to do with the players themselves: the ad lib ones, such as the Roosters’ young half Sam Walker, Brisbane’s Reece Walsh and even older ones such as Melbourne’s Cameron Munster.
Historically, the premiers tend to set the playing trend and the Panthers, winners of three successive premierships, have been led by an attack-minded pair of halves – Nathan Cleary and Jarome Luai – and a ball-distributing lock, Isaah Yeo.
Earlier, when the Storm dominated grand finals, their attack was more structured, allowing the defence to anticipate it.
The NRL’s rules are also a major factor in creating momentum. After five seasons of adapting to changes in the six-again rule, the playing action is now at the attacking end of the field. When the repeat set rule was introduced in round 3, 2020, it was predictable the defence would deliberately concede ruck breaches on the first and second tackles.
Nathan Cleary and Jarome Luai have ushered in a new era.Credit: NRL Photos
Lesser teams found it impossible to escape their half. Now, breaches for this, plus offside defence, result in a penalty when inside the 40-metre zone. Outside this territory, the referee rules repeat sets. It’s taken time for players and even referees to adjust.
The combination of the rule changes and player spontaneity has resulted in momentum becoming increasingly powerful. The number of tries scored is testament: 1009 tries at the end of round 17 in 2024 versus 968 to the same round last year, as sourced by Champion Data. Consider the sequence behind the lead boulder in the avalanche of NSW tries in the State of Origin match at the MCG.