Iran’s governance needs structural changes to streamline its increasingly unworkable two-tier system of governance: the all-powerful supreme leader embodying the sovereignty of God, and the elected president and national assembly representing the sovereignty of the people, but subordinate to the first tier.

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Pezeshkian, however, stands a better chance than his reformist predecessors. He is strongly backed by Khatami, Rouhani and former foreign minister Javad Zarif, along with the majority of voters. The fact that the Guardian Council, where Khamenei holds considerable sway and which vets candidates, approved Pezeshkian’s run indicates the supreme leader is content for the reformists to have another go.

Khamenei knows that the state-society dichotomy has dangerously widened, and that Iran is amid a regional situation whereby it potentially faces a war with Israel and the US over its support of Hamas and the Palestinian cause, and its “axis of resistance”.

Beyond this, the Islamic regime faces a change in supreme leader sooner rather than later. Khamenei is 85, with no apparent successor. President Ebrahim Raisi, who died in an air crash in May, and Khamenei’s son, Mujtaba, were touted as possible successors. Although Mujtaba remains in the race, it is now in Khamenei’s interest to leave behind a factional balance and more stable Islamic system for the choice of a successor that would ultimately be determined by the constitutional body of the Council of Experts, whose task is to appoint and dismiss a supreme leader.

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As a result, the new president will have an opportunity to press on with some of his economic, social and foreign policy reforms to promote a more humane face of the Islamic regime. But his moves will be watched closely not only by a sceptical West, but more importantly by his internal opponents, who will want to make sure he does not engage in any structural changes to undermine their dominance in the system. Given his allegiance to the Islamic system of governance, Pezeshkian has his work cut out for him.

Amin Saikal is an emeritus professor at the Australian National University and adjunct professor at the University of Western Australia, and author of Iran Rising: The Survival and Future of the Islamic Republic.

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