Posted: 2024-07-10 00:52:45

Following weeks of speculation, a torrent of media articles from the West Australian press and increasing fan interest, the West Coast Eagles brought an end to coach Adam Simpson's era.

Over 11 seasons Simpson had taken the Eagles to two grand finals and one premiership, but had only won eight games in more than two and a half seasons.

Their 2018 flag remains a high point for the proud club, arguably their most memorable and hardest-fought flag.

At the end of the day, West Coast fans have just one question — what went wrong since then?

From premiers to wooden spooners

There are a few indicators along the way that can point to reasons for the decline from premiers in 2018 to wooden spooners last year.

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Player availability is perhaps as important as any other factor when it comes to modern football.

West Coast has been hit hard by injuries and old-fashioned decline to aging. It's no surprise that 2024 has been the best they've looked in three years — it's also the healthiest they've been in that time.

The more general list recruitment picture has also been a factor — one that confronts most successful sides on the way back down the ladder.

West Coast had been able to maintain some solid list renewal while contending before the 2018 flag. The Eagles largely missed out in the first round of the drafts from 2015 to 2017.

However, they made up for it with a glut of second-round picks yielding parts of their current core such as Jake Waterman, Oscar Allen, Liam Ryan and Tom Cole.

In 2019 West Coast went all in to acquire Tim Kelly. They gave up a haul including two more first rounders for the former Cat. This was similar to the moves Hawthorn made to grab Wingard, Mitchell and O'Meara to try to top up for another run at a flag.

From this point, West Coast's draft well ran dry. They took no picks within the first 28 selections between 2018 and 2020, with none inside the top 48 for 2019 and 2020. They also didn't hit on those late-round fliers unlike in that earlier run.

The years of lean drafts robbed West Coast of the ability to accumulate top-end talent.

This has amplified the injury and aging issues West Coast have faced over the past four years.

West Coast have just nine players left from that premiership team. In the past two seasons they've swung hard towards acquiring capable young players – headlined by Harley Reid. It's clear that more work needs to be done to rebuild the list.

A forward line without Kennedy led to decline

Other game-style factors may have impacted the fall.

Their hyper-efficient attack underwrote that famous 2018 premiership. Led by Josh Kennedy and Jack Darling, the Eagles could score like few other teams – turning half chances into certain goals.

The Eagles had streamlined their attacking system through Simpson's early time in charge. Their cohesive group of forwards had nailed down leading patterns, hotspots and entry kicks.

Watching the Eagles at full flight was truly a spectacle worth tuning in for.

The changing of the guard meant that cohesion was lost. The departure of their biggest star up forward, Kennedy, illuminated perhaps a bigger issue.

Defences can't always stop an opposition side altogether. Instead, sometimes they can only force them into less desirable positions such as far from goal and into the pockets.

Without the ever-reliable Kennedy the Eagles' ability to generate goals from these harder spots has plummeted.

Almost alone Kennedy turned West Coast into one of the best goal-kicking sides in the competition. Without him they've sunk.

This year the Eagles have generated the sixth-lowest quality of scoring shots (based on field position and context). They've also struggled to convert these opportunities, kicking worse than expected on these hard chances.

Without that clear, ball-winning focal point in the air, they've struggled to dominate that valuable real estate inside 50. Their rate of finding marking targets inside 50 is near the bottom of the competition, perhaps a sign of a lack of connection, or slightly undersized forward focal points.

In 2018 they could cover for a lower quality of shots. In 2024 they don't have that top-end talent.

Defensive mindset took longer to adjust

It wasn't just the Eagles' attack that led them to success in recent years past. The Eagles also deployed a strong defence during their time at the top under Simpson — headlined by All Australian key talls such as Jeremy McGovern and Tom Barass.

McGovern often played an intercepting role around their peak. He had the licence to peel off, eating space and disrupting attacks.

The game for spare defenders has evolved, with teams better at exploiting shorter kicks and moving laterally. It's taken time for McGovern and the Eagles to adjust.

Recently they've moved to a more fluid style and counterattacked more quickly, but it has not translated to regular success.

But this hasn't been their only defensive issue in recent years.

ABC Sport explored the Eagles' ability to score heavily from centre clearances earlier this year. While West Coast have been about the most potent side at attacking from the centre bounce since the start of 2023, they have also leaked the most points.

West Coast has appeared to set-up aggressively at stoppages, looking to win their ball and attack quickly. If this fails, they tend to leave themselves exposed going the other way.

Simpson wasn't blind to these issues. After the loss to Melbourne last week, he lamented their ability to structure around ground-ball contests.

"You know the system was OK but contest[s] was a problem. We got outnumbered in ground-ball situations so when the game opened up we struggled a little bit. When we closed it down and shut them down we looked a bit better."

All teams struggle to defend quickly from clear stoppage exits and turnovers. The Eagles in particular have often struggled to slow opposition attack enough to effectively set up.

They've conceded the most marks inside 50 per opposition inside 50 of any side this year. That's despite having players like Barrass and McGovern still playing good defensive footy down back.

The next coach — caretaker or full time — will need to look seriously at their ability to shut the opposition down when they lose contests. The current ball-winner heavy rotation — or at least strategic focus — may need to adjust.

The future ahead for the Eagles

It is clear that there have been issues increasingly building on the field for the Eagles. What is less clear is whether the incessant media attention towards the demise of Simpson was warranted.

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