Posted: 2024-07-18 21:38:00

There's been brutal tech sell-off post Donald Trump comments to the media at the Republican National Convention about stepping up China tariffs and protecting Taiwan from China.

Wedbush analyst Dan Ives says this is nothing new from Trump, and he excepts more of the same in the coming weeks.

"When Trump got into the White House in 2016 we went through many days and weeks in which Trump White House comments were viewed as the 'doomsday' for Big Tech, semis, Apple, and the bears said this was the end of the tech trade with a US-China trade war battle," Mr Ives points out.

"During the Biden administration we have also been through many comments and days in which China tariffs-restrictions, Taiwan issues, and the Cold Tech War worries caused a frost across Nvidia, Apple (China retaliatory worries), Tesla, and semis."

Fast forward to this week, and with a potential Trump White House win on the horizon for November, tech investors are now focused on if a Trump second term would be a major negative for the AI Revolution trade.

"Trump's ominous China comments this week sparked major worries that a looming semi-tariff battle is on the horizon with China that will stop the music at the AI party where it's only 9pm in a tech party we see going till 4am," Mr Ives says.

"Our long standing view navigating Trump politics and the tech sector, is the political rhetoric during this political climate and Beltway races will be loud but ultimately just like our view since 2016, the bark will be way worse than the bite on the US-China Cold Tech War fears.

"This is all a game of high stakes poker for the Trump campaign and a shot across the bow against XI's Beijing.

"The Biden administration will also keep pace with this and threaten, and possibly enact, some higher tariffs or restrictions but ultimately this does not move the needle in our view.

"We believe the 'Trump trade' does not ruin the AI Revolution thesis and tech bull market, and to some extent its just a negotiation that will be a long and drawn out process.

"In a nutshell, we believe Q2 earnings will be a major positive catalyst for the tech sector and expect tech stocks to be up another 15 per cent for the year, adding to the robust tech gains in the first half of 2024 as now the broader tech growth story takes center stage.

"The standouts we expect from the June quarter will be Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Palantir, Meta, with our favorite cyber security names Zscaler, Crowdstrike, Palo Alto, Cyberark, Checkpoint, and Tenable."

But in a recent interview with The Business, Talaria's chief investment officer Chad Padowitz says these stocks are still overvalued.

More on that here:

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