In short:
The chief executive of Universities Australia has warned that a fall in international student numbers could lead to up to 14,000 job losses in the university sector.
University peak bodies have also criticised the government's plans to introduce limits on the number of international students able to study in Australia, describing it as "ministerial overreach".
What's next?
The government is yet to finalise the details of a cap on the number of international students enrolled in Australian higher education, which it plans to introduce on January 1.
Up to 14,000 workers could lose their jobs if the number of international students arriving in Australia continues to fall, the peak body for universities has warned.
The government is pushing ahead with its contentious plan to cap the number of international students enrolled in Australian universities from January 1, but says it is yet to finalise what that limit will be.
Universities Australia chief executive Luke Sheehy told a Senate inquiry on Tuesday that the number of student visas being granted had already dropped by 23 per cent — or almost 60,000 students — over the past year.
He said the impact of 60,000 fewer international students arriving in Australia, according to recent data from Home Affairs, would represent a $4.3 billion hit to the economy and possibly tens of thousands of job losses.
Even without the introduction of international student number limits, Mr Sheehy accused the government of taking a "sledgehammer to the international education sector".
He attributed the drop in student visa grants largely to Ministerial Direction 107, which was handed down in December in a bid to streamline student visa applications.
The direction slowed visa processing and led to a "spike in visa cancellations for many universities", he told the inquiry.
Almost 376,731 student visas were granted in this financial year to June 30, according to Department of Home Affairs data.
Plans to cap students under fire
The inquiry is examining a bill that would grant the minister powers to limit the enrolment of overseas students by provider, course, or location and pause the registration of new providers or courses.
If it passes, the government will set limits on international students at every university, higher education and vocational education provider that educates an international student.
But on Tuesday a spokesperson for Education Minister Jason Clare rejected media reports that the government planned to set the cap on international students to 40 per cent of the student body, based on 2019 figures, stating that they had "not finalised the proposed limits for international education providers".
Independent Higher Education Australia's chief executive Peter Hendy told the inquiry that the 40 per cent figure was "very, very similar" to the information he had heard but that he had not had any detailed discussions with the government.
If such a cap was applied to smaller, independent institutions, as well as public universities, he said it would be a "serious existential threat to a large number of providers".
Mr Sheehy described the prospect of caps on the number of international students able to enrol in an institution as "ministerial overreach to an extent we have never seen before".
"Using students as cannon fodder in a poll-driven battle over migration and housing simply doesn't add up," he said.
"The danger of using these talented people as scapegoats to blame the housing crisis on is what we stand to lose by telling them to stay home."
Vicki Thomson, chief executive of the Group of Eight, said the organisation did not support a cap on international students, describing attempts to do so as "draconian, interventionist and amount to economic vandalism".
For Go8 universities alone, she said, capping international students to pre-pandemic levels compared to 2023 numbers would cost the country more than $5.3 billion and over 22,500 jobs.
Prospective students looking elsewhere
An international student at Flinders University told the inquiry that anecdotally thousands of prospective international students had already been denied or had their visas delayed following the ministerial directive.
"This sends a strong message to the world that international students are not welcome here," Janageeth Logeswaran, who is also a member of the national student union, said.
"Moreover, the introduction of these caps, especially at public institutions, sends another message that genuine international students in Australia are a mere commodity."
He said the international education industry relied heavily on reputation and that as a result of the recent changes, a lot of prospective students were looking elsewhere.
"It's a lot of word of mouth, I could just call my cousin and be like, 'my experience has been great, do you want to come?,'" he said.
"I speak to hundreds of students, and a lot of people are reconsidering their decisions and they're considering more welcoming countries."
In a statement, Mr Clare said the proposed reforms will help set up international education for the future, "ensuring quality and integrity and providing certainty for universities".
"This is a really important national asset, and we need to ensure it maintains its social licence.
“We are consulting with leaders from the international education sector to make sure we get the design and implementation of these critical reforms right, with implementation to begin from 1 January 2025.”