“We’ve delivered the first back-to-back surpluses in almost two decades at the same time as we’re easing cost of living for Australians. We’ve always put a premium on responsible economic management, and that’s especially important amidst all this global uncertainty.”

Reserve Bank governor Michele Bullock, who suggested last week that home buyers and businesses in Australia could wait until after Christmas for a cut to interest rates, highlighted the risks of a contracting Chinese economy to Australia.

“The Chinese economy is still performing OK. It’s meeting their target of around 5 per cent growth, but they still have a very big drag from the problems in their real estate sector there,” Bullock said.

“That is something that we’re watching quite closely because … developments in China can have quite a big impact on the way our trade develops and therefore on our growth.”

The federal government unveiled a surplus of $9.3 billion in May, following a $22.1 billion surplus in 2022-23, but a deficit of $28.3 billion is forecast for 2024–25.

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Finance Minister Katy Gallagher said on Sunday the fall in iron prices had been expected and that revenue forecasts would be updated in the mid-year budget update in December.

“Obviously, any decline in the iron ore price impacts revenue to the budget,” she said. “We don’t have decreasing pressures on the budget. We’ve got increasing pressures on the budget, so any change like that certainly has an impact, but we do put conservative figures in the budget for that reason.”

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