Back to NAB boss Andrew Irvine now, who expects interest rates to come down next year – but says it will be tough for many households for the next six to nine months.
“I do feel like we’re getting to a point where interest rates will start to come down,” he said.
“That will provide more money in the economy, more demand in the economy, which will mean that businesses will be healthier, and therefore they’ll be able to hire more, pay more and more.”
While more people are working extra hours to make ends meet, Irvine said there were many demographics who were less visible to the bank.
“It’s going to be tough, I think, for the best part of the next six to nine months,” he said, noting young people, renters and single mothers were particularly likely to be facing financial stress.
But these people were also less likely to show up on banks’ balance sheets, making the major banks’ gauges of financial stress across the economy less accurate, Irvine said.
“Banks are probably no longer the best barometer of society in terms of how society is handling this cost of living crisis because of responsible lending [requirements] and the barriers to bank lending,” he said.
“We probably don’t see the people in our lending books that are most vulnerable, I think that’s why you’re seeing a little bit of a disconnect between ... arrears in our balance sheet being quite low and ... what we’re hearing and seeing from our customers all around the economy today.”