If Trump is accepted by so-called “strongmen” like Vladimir Putin, Xi Jinping and Kim Jong Un, “he might convince others, and especially himself, that he was strong”.

Loading

And they know exactly how to manipulate him, even when he’s convinced he’s acting in the US national interest: “He really does want to get these big deals that are in America’s interest, right? So there’s nothing like malicious about that,” McMaster tells me. “He has great confidence in his ability as a dealmaker.”

Too much so; he often rejects the advice of expert advisers and does the opposite out of sheer contrariness, McMaster explains. Plus, he hates to prepare for meetings, while the leaders of US adversaries inevitably have made great efforts to prepare.

“They would figure out pretty quickly that he would like a kind of a big deal or an announcement of some kind between him, Trump, and our adversaries,” McMaster says. “And so they push his buttons on that.

“They will hold out the prospect of co-operation on counterterrorism, or co-operation on cybersecurity with Russia,” says McMaster who, as he speaks, is unable to stop himself chuckling at the absurdity of the idea. Putin did actually offer such an agreement to Trump, with absolutely no intention of actually delivering in good faith, of course.

Loading

McMaster relates his disbelief that Putin could manage to keep a straight face in some of his dealings with Trump. On one occasion, he says, Putin handed Trump a list of potential projects for US-Russia co-operation – including an amusement park on the Moscow outskirts. Almost as if he’s daring Trump to denounce him as a prankster.

“So they understand what his vulnerabilities are, and then they try to push his buttons.” And it just so happens that “the easy ones” generally are US allies and Trump commonly took advantage to insult and bully them, from Angela Merkel to Justin Trudeau.

So he’s credulous in doing deals with America’s enemies yet punitive in dealing with US allies, although Malcolm Turnbull got better results with an approach he later described this way: “Whether in the Oval Office or on the playground, giving in to bullies encourages more bullying. The only way to win the respect of people such as Trump is to stand up to them.”

Trump today stands an even chance of winning the presidency for a second term at the November 5 election. If he wins, should we expect more of the same? McMaster has some advice for US allies. Don’t be anxious, be ready to engage. “Get over it and engage. Recognise that he’s going to have an agenda of burden sharing [in defence] and reciprocity in trade.”

Australia is well placed to deal with a second Trump term: “Australia’s in pretty good shape. You know, we actually have a trade surplus with Australia. There is burden-sharing in defence. You have the AUKUS arrangement, which is something that he would embrace, or it would make sense to him,” McMaster says in his only interview with any Australian media.

Loading

Rather than hide away in fear, leaders of US friends and allies should embrace opportunities to talk to Trump if he’s elected because, says McMaster, he is capable of listening and learning in direct exchanges. He cites several examples with various leaders, including an Australian.

“He had that rocky start with Turnbull, but then he met Turnbull in New York and they had a great exchange. It really helped Trump evolve his thinking about the Pacific.”

He might hate doing his homework but he is capable of paying attention in the classroom of leader summits.

Joe Hockey expressed even greater confidence when he spoke at the National Press Club this week. While there were “are a lot of countries fretting about Trump being elected”, said the former Australian ambassador to the US, “I think Australia is in incredibly good position with both candidates.”

Loading

McMaster, now affiliated with Hoover Institution at Stanford University and the Arizona State University, says Australia needn’t be defensive but should actively seek opportunity under the next president, whether Trump or Kamala Harris.

“Australia can be a huge beneficiary to help make our supply chains more resilient, especially critical materials and minerals, where we have become overly reliant on supply chains controlled by China.”

The co-operation agreement signed this week between 14 democracies including Australia – nicknamed “the NATO of critical minerals” – is intended to address exactly these supply chain problems.

Loading

“People are overly alarmed” about a Trump recrudescence, claims McMaster, although he acknowledges that another Trump term would carry grave risks, at home and abroad.

The greatest risk abroad? In his memoir, McMaster tells of a Trump presidential visit to US Indo-Pacific command in Hawaii: “The briefing showed the burgeoning numbers of People’s Liberation Army ships, aircraft and missiles relative to US forces. Trump was incredulous that the US had allowed China to conduct such a massive build-up unanswered.” He kept the briefing charts and mounted them on the wall of the dining room next to the Oval Office.

Yet China’s build-up remained largely unanswered, other than by AUKUS, and America’s forces had fallen behind, says McMaster. The next US president had to build up US forces urgently to deter Xi from aggression by imposing an unacceptably high cost.

And at home? If Trump loses the election, the risk of mob violence or an attempted insurrection would be “a legitimate concern”, McMaster tells me. And there’s always America’s traditional enemy, political dysfunction. Indeed, the title of his memoir is At War with Ourselves: My Tour of Duty in the Trump White House.

Whenever the administration was shaping up to produce a rational policy, the MAGA fanatics led by Steve Bannon would “roll grenades” into the Oval Office in an effort to blow it up, and often succeeded. McMaster once asked Bannon in a White House meeting why he was an apologist for Putin; Bannon denied the charge, then quickly changed the subject. The former Trump strategist is currently in prison for contempt of Congress but due for release the week before the election. Even in his absence, there is never a shortage of right-wing extremists ready to pander to Trump’s worst instincts.

Trump’s world view would remain a constant risk in any return to the White House. His “obsession with avoiding any offence to a political base that included a racist fringe undermined his ability to lead the country”, observes McMaster. And McMaster’s parallel universe remains intact even now that he’s a self-described “washed-up general”. He still doesn’t know how much he was paid.

Peter Hartcher is political and international editor.