“I don’t think Iran really wanted a war with Israel,” says ANU professor emeritus of Middle East studies, Amin Saikal.
“But Iran got to the point of saying to Israel, ‘No, you’re not going to agree to a ceasefire in Gaza, you’re invading Lebanon’, and at the same time Iran wanted to maintain its credibility and its network of affiliates.”
The result? Iran bombarded Israel with 180 ballistic missiles on Tuesday night, Australian time. After its missile and drone assault on Israel in April, this was only the second time Iran has struck Israel directly.
And, for the second time, while it terrified Israeli civilians, Iran’s missiles proved impotent against the combined interception effort of Israel, the United States, Britain, France and Jordan.
But instead of intensifying its attack, Iran has pulled back. It immediately declared its action complete.
It has many thousands more missiles that it could fire and possibly overwhelm Israel’s air defences, but it is not. Its air force has stayed on the ground. It is not threatening escalation or hinting at nuclear attack.
The regime of Ayatollah Khamenei is unpopular at home and its economy is crushed by sanctions imposed by the West. “Iran doesn’t want an all-out regional war because of the damage it would do to Iran but also damage it would do to the regime,” says retired Australian major general Mick Ryan.
But with the ring of fire sputtering and smouldering, Israel now confronts the chief arsonist in his own home. And Iran has given Israel the opportunity to impose a punishing retaliation.
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“Netanyahu,” observes Ryan, “is also in regime-preservation mode.” He has promised to retaliate and, unlike in April, the White House this time is not urging restraint.
Israel “would love to attack” Iran’s nuclear development facilities attests Ryan, a military and political achievement that Netanyahu craves, “but whether they have reach is another question”.
With the ring of fire subdued and the arsonist exposed, Tehran is in a very vulnerable position as it awaits Israel’s next move.
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