Loading

Since then, as Israeli polling analyst Dahlia Scheindlin recently wrote in Israeli newspaper Haaretz, the polls have shown an “incremental but steady rise” in support for Netanyahu’s government.

Netanyahu’s recovery, Scheindlin argues, began in April when Israel and its security partners successfully repelled a blizzard of rocket and missile attacks launched by Iran.

Then came the audacious assassination of Hamas’ political leader, Ismail Haniyeh, in Tehran, the shock pager and rocket attacks against Hezbollah operatives in Lebanon and the assassination of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah. These operations have helped restore Israelis’ sense of pride and Netanyahu’s reputation as “Mr Security”: the only person capable of protecting the nation from the hostile forces surrounding it.

The escalation of hostilities in the Middle East that is alarming global leaders (including Biden and Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese) is working in Netanyahu’s political favour at home. His decision to intensify the fight against Hezbollah in a bid to secure Israel’s northern border is broadly popular among Israelis, as is his decision to hit back at Iran for last week’s missile strikes.

Meanwhile, the war in Gaza and the plight of the hostages are receiving less attention here – again, to Netanyahu’s benefit. The promised reckoning over the failures that led to October 7 – with those responsible to be held accountable – is nowhere to be seen.

As a result, Netanyahu’s Likud party is once again the most popular in Israel and his personal ratings have risen. A poll by Channel 14 released at the end of September found that, for the first time since October 7, Netanyahu’s governing coalition (the most right-wing in Israeli history) would be re-elected if an election were held today.

A Channel 12 poll released at the end of September, after the assassination of Nasrallah, found that 43 per cent of Israelis believed Netanyahu had done a good job in the war – up from 35 per cent 10 days earlier. He now easily outpolls his more centrist leadership rivals, Benny Gantz and Yair Lapid, and has dramatically narrowed the gap with former prime minister Naftali Bennett to just three points behind. (Bennett, it is important to note, is in many ways more hawkish and conservative than Netanyahu.)

The next Israeli elections are due in October 2026, and Netanyahu looks increasingly likely to hold onto power until then. Since October 7 last year, Netanyahu’s coalition government has often appeared on the verge of collapse. At the end of September this year, he won breathing room when another small conservative party joined the government, expanding the size of his coalition and diluting the power of far-right cabinet members Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich.

Loading

Many things can be true at once. At 74, Netanyahu is a divisive and widely distrusted figure in Israel, as well as its great political survivor.

The Netanyahu era will eventually end, as all eras end. For now, though, we’re still living in it.

Get a note directly from our foreign correspondents on what’s making headlines around the world. Sign up for the weekly What in the World newsletter here.