Israel’s supporters, led by the United States, have castigated Iran for the attack. Washington has promised more sanctions and urged Israel to be measured in its response. But as the “iron-clad” security, financial and economic provider of Israel, it has little or no leverage to restrain Netanyahu, short of cutting off arms supplies to Israel, which it is not prepared to do.

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The ball is now in the court of the Israeli leader. What form his retaliation takes will be critical. If he decides to go for a disproportionate response by targeting Iranian oil platforms, military installations and nuclear facilities, that will only escalate the conflict. Tehran may find itself with little choice but to retaliate to protect its interests. In this case, the US will definitely enter the fight on Israel’s side.

Tehran has said that in the event of a war, all Israeli, American and allied assets in the region will be a target. Iran’s air power is very limited, but it possesses advanced missile systems to conduct warfare within a well-developed asymmetrical strategy. It also has close strategic ties with Russia, whose prime minister visited Tehran just before the Iranian missile salvos at Israel. In a wider conflict, Tehran can count on the full support of Russia, China, and a NATO member, Turkey.

On the other hand, should Netanyahu and his extremist supporters restrain themselves and embrace a Gaza ceasefire as the fundamental demand of Tehran and its regional affiliates, not only would the remainder of the Israeli hostages be freed, but an escalation can be avoided. The avenue will also open for a diplomatic resolution of the long-running Israeli-Hezbollah hostility and Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

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The key to what transpires next lies with the Israeli and Iranian leaderships, and Washington. Use of force to generate favourable changes has never paid off in the volatile, yet hydro-carbon rich and strategically important, Middle East. The region is in the throes of an uncontrollable explosion, but this can still be avoided.

Amin Saikal is emeritus professor at the Australian National University, and adjunct professor at the University of Western Australia, and author of Iran Rising: The survival and future of the Islamic Republic (2021); and How to Lose a War: The story of America’s intervention in Afghanistan (2024).

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