It is now 2024, and the internationals are back for more. On average, they win one in every four years.

In the 31 years since Vintage Crop made history as the first European-based horse to salute on the first Tuesday in November in 1993, there have been eight fly-in, fly-out internationals to repeat the dose - Media Puzzle (2002), Delta Blues (2006), American (2010), Dunaden (2011), Protectionist (2014), Rekindling (2017), Cross Counter (2018), Twilight Payment (2020).

There have varying blueprints for success: first you had to be Irish, then you had to be Japanese, next you had to have a lead up race in Australia, and then you had to be German or French.

In recent years, the secret was to bring across a well-weighted northern hemisphere three-year-old (considered four in Australia because a horse’s birthday is August 1 not January 1).

But these fads have come and gone. The past two winners – Gold Trip and Without A Fight – have been horses bought in Europe but raced in Australia for at least 12 months before lifting the Cup. That sort of build-up would point this year to the likes of Gai Waterhouse’s Eliyass or Chris Waller trio Land Legend, Buckaroo and Via Sistina.

Conditions have also changed. O’Brien was central to another significant shift in 2018 when his runner The Cliffsofmoher sustained a fractured shoulder and was euthanised in the Flemington straight. It was the sixth death linked to the Cup in six years.

As a result, Racing Victoria introduced a raft of new vet tests making it tougher for European horses to gain a passport. Numbers have almost halved.

This year, there will be only 12 horses trained out of the Werribee quarantine centre. The last plane load arrives on Saturday afternoon.

The stricter vet protocols, which include leg scans, have been met with criticism.

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“Very few horses pass the criteria, especially young horses,” O’Brien told the Racing Post last month.

“It’s very difficult for three-year-olds to get through because they are still growing, and their bones are still maturing, so I wouldn’t be sure about any of them getting in and being allowed to run. It’s ridiculous really.”

For their part, Racing Victoria remains unapologetic for setting a higher safety benchmark. The $8 million Melbourne Cup has been incident free for the past three years.

Despite his misgivings, O’Brien is lining up again. While his son, Joseph, has won twice – Rekindling and Twilight Payment – the closest O’Brien has come was second with Tiger Moth in 2020.

His highly rated youngster and race favourite Jan Brueghel is expected to touch down on Saturday.

The race has also become a fascination for his country man, Willie Mullins, who has finished second, third and fourth. This year he is bringing back last year’s favourite Vauban and stablemate Absurde.

It can cost as much as $100,000 to send a horse to race in Melbourne and back, but the rewards are tantalising – $4.4 million to the winner, $1.1 million for second, $550,000 for third and at least $160,000 back to 12th.

So, will 2024 be the one year in four when an international horse wins the Melbourne Cup? Let’s take a look:

Jan Brueghel

Trainer: Aidan O’Brien. Main aim: Melbourne Cup
Every year an international raider lands on Australian shores and attracts more hype than a Taylor Swift concert. This year, that horse is Jan Brueghel. From the moment they knew he was coming, the bookies started winding in his odds. He is now a $6 favourite. So, does he deserve the spruik? Hmmmmm. Yes. He is trained by Aidan O’Brien, he is a northern hemisphere three-year-old, and he is unbeaten in four starts, the most recent over 2900m in the group 1 St Leger at Doncaster. Having said that, he has to acclimatise to Australian conditions. As a betting prospect, wait until Cup Day.

Vauban

Trainer: Willie Mullins. Main aim: Melbourne Cup
Last year’s spruik horse. And that didn’t end well. After punters practically jumped out of trees to back him, he barely fired a shot, finishing 14th behind Without A Fight. This year, Mullins has changed his approach, flying Vauban into Australia at a later date and giving him a different preparation. Since last year, Vauban has had five starts for one win – the group 2 Lonsdale Cup at York – and a solid second behind Kyprios in the group 1 Irish St Leger. That is winning form.

Prognosis

Trainer: Mitsumasa Nakauchida. Main aim: Cox Plate
If we were talking tennis, Prognosis is a bona fide top seed. A world-class Japanese runner with form around last year’s Cox Plate winner Romantic Warrior. He does have a troubling habit of missing the start, but if jockey Damian Lane can pop him out of the gates at the Valley, he will be difficult to beat. Lane has history with Japanese horses and the Cox Plate, winning on Lys Gracieux in 2019.

Docklands

Trainer: Harry Eustace. Main aim: Cox Plate
If odds are an indication, he is about as popular as the Melbourne waterside precinct that shares the same name. Australian-owned Docklands grabbed the attention at Royal Ascot with a second in the 1600m group 1 Queen Anne Stakes. He was then outclassed in the group 1 Judmonte International Stakes at York, 11-lengths seventh to City Of Troy. An outsider to win the Cox Plate.

Warp Speed

Trainer: Noboru Takagi. Main aim: Caulfield and Melbourne cups
A well-named horse for Star Trek fans, Warp Speed’s last race was at group 1 level in Japan, beaten 4.25 lengths fifth in the 3200m Tenno Sho behind T O Royal. Going off that, next week’s Caulfield Cup will be the ideal tune-up for the Melbourne Cup – a formula that worked for Delta Blues in 2006.

Sayedaty Sadaty

Trainer: Ciaron Maher. Main aim: Melbourne Cup
Has form around Jan Brueghel (third in the St Leger) and connections were hoping to gain a Caulfield Cup start, but he was too far down the order of entry. Will need to win the Geelong Cup to gain a start in the Melbourne Cup. But it has the form and worth a speculative bet at 50-1.

Absurde

Trainer: Willie Mullins. Main aim: Melbourne Cup
Irish trainer Willie Mullins’ second stringer. He outperformed stable elect Vauban last year, finishing seventh behind Without A Fight. Since then he has had five starts for two wins, neither at group level. Hard to see him being a top three chance.

Onesmoothoperator

Trainer: Brian Ellison. Main aim: Melbourne Cup
Brings the B-grade European form and is 42nd in the order of entry, meaning 18 horses would have to fall by the wayside before he was guaranteed a Melbourne Cup start. He can jump the queue by winning the Geelong Cup on October 23. Wait until then.

Birdman

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Trainer: Chris Waller. Main aim: Melbourne Cup
Arrived two weeks ago to join the Chris Waller stable after being bought by Australian connections, including Ozzie Kheir. Ran third at Royal Ascot over 2800m in the group 2 Queen’s Vase behind Illinois. But flopped next start in Ireland. Needs to win the Geelong Cup to improve its ratings.

Sea King

Trainer: Harry Eustace. Main aim: Country cups
Brought to Australia as a galloping partner for stablemate Docklands. There will be easier races than the Melbourne Cup, possibly the Geelong or Bendigo cups. It could also be seen in the Moonee Valley Cup and the group 3 Queen Elizabeth Stakes on the final day of the Flemington carnival.