New York: With two weeks to go, the polls of the US presidential election are starting to run out of room to get any closer.
Vice President Kamala Harris and former president Donald Trump are essentially tied – with neither candidate ahead by even a single point – in The New York Times’ polling average of five critical battleground states: Pennsylvania, Michigan, Nevada, Wisconsin and North Carolina.
With two weeks to go, there is nothing to split Donald Trump and Kamala Harris in the race to the White House.Credit: Marija Ercegovac
In North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Michigan, neither candidate “leads” by more than two-tenths of a percentage point. Neither can realistically win the presidency without winning at least one of these states.
With the polls so tight, the term “leads” really does need to be in quotation marks. Yes, the difference between “leading” or “trailing” by 0.2 points might feel very significant – it looks like the difference between whether a candidate is winning or losing. The election, however, is not decided by the polls; it’s decided by the voters. As a consequence, a lead or deficit of 0.2 points in a polling average is not the difference between whether a candidate is winning or losing, even though it may feel like it.
The polls simply are not precise enough for a 0.2-point edge to convey any meaningful information. For all purposes, the race is tied; don’t feel any sorrow or take any solace in whether your candidate is on the right or wrong side of that 0.2-point gap.
In recent elections, the polls have tended to systematically underestimate or overestimate one side by several percentage points. If that happens this year, either candidate could claim a surprisingly decisive victory.
Here’s where the race stands with two weeks to go.