“Trump is from New York but not of New York,” says Lincoln Mitchell, a third-generation New Yorker and political analyst at Columbia University. “That kind of brash, affected, in-your-face stuff is not really what this city likes. He’s a rich kid who gets to play at being a tough guy. This is a city that is built on commerce and trade … and we know a conman when we see him.”
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Then there’s his anti-immigration stance. Trump has proposed mass deportations and falsely claimed Haitian migrants had eaten their neighbours’ pets. Such policies and accusations have proven particularly antithetical to many in a city that has long welcomed immigrants.
Mitchell, whose great-grandparents migrated here from Belarus and Poland, says Trump’s idea that America is only “for white, Christian, straight people, particularly men”, did not reflect New York’s diversity and “demonstrates how out of touch Trump is with what this city is”.
Diversity comes up again when I ask barista Herbert Benjamin why he thinks Trump is unpopular here. “I kind of feel bad for the man,” says the 37-year-old. “I think it’s because of the culture – we’re very diverse. At the end of the day, we respect each other, and he’s not respectful to anybody.”
But you don’t have to go beyond the city limits to hear a different story. Inside Trump Tower on a recent Friday, tourists were happy to chat about the building’s owner.
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Samantha, a 19-year-old who only wanted to give her first name, had just been shopping at the Trump Store with her mum, buying shirts and glasses to take home to Denver, Colorado. She’s relishing the chance to vote for Trump for the first time, and says most of her friends will vote for him too. “I’m very excited” she says.
An older couple from Ohio, who’d just had lunch at the Trump Cafe, didn’t want to give their names, either, but were happy to share why Trump will get their vote. “The economy was much better when he was in power,” says the woman, 62. “We’re afraid of what would happen if Harris was in charge.”
On the bottom level of Trump Tower, I find a New Yorker who’s willing to talk – a shop assistant behind the counter of the Trump Store, where you can buy everything from hats, cups and drink bottles to teddy bears and chocolates bearing Trump’s name. “I think he’ll be able to fix everything,” she says. “I’m 99.9 per cent sure that he will win.”
Such unbridled confidence would surely please her boss. “We are going to win New York!” Trump declared at a rally on Long Island the same night as the protest in my neighbourhood. “I’m the greatest of all time, maybe greater even than Elvis because Elvis had a guitar.”
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Perhaps Trump will channel the King this weekend when he holds a rally at New York’s Madison Square Garden. Elvis made history when he became the first entertainer to sell out four consecutive shows at the storied venue in 1972.
Whether Trump can make history by winning over New Yorkers this time round seems like a tougher task. While national polls suggest the presidential candidates are locked in an incredibly tight race, Kamala Harris is ahead of Trump by 19 percentage points in New York state in the latest Siena College poll.
“I never say never about anything any more but … I think if Donald Trump carried New York that would be particularly shocking,” says Greenberg. “It’s hard to imagine how any Republican, but particularly Donald Trump, could carry New York.”
Liz Gooch is an Australian journalist and editor based in New York.