Four Iranian military personnel were killed. Reports also indicate that Israel provided some regional states with forewarning of the attack, on the understanding that Tehran would be informed. Iranian airspace was penetrated and a limited set of targets were attacked. Once again, the emphasis was on messaging: strategic effect on targets was a real but secondary aim. The sub-text, that future moves towards a nuclear capability by Iran would be equally vulnerable, was clear.

Both sides are now likely to step back and draw breath, while absorbing the lessons of their respective actions. In the strategic context of the Middle East, the boundaries of what passes for accepted behaviour are often being pushed, sometimes crossed and then reset. But rarely if ever in the way we have seen in the past year. Hamas’ attack on October 7 crossed a red line and consequently, Israel has been redefining what “military necessity” and “proportionality” means, first in Gaza, and now in Lebanon.

The boundaries in the Iran-Israel shadow war have now been radically reset with direct attacks on each other. For the moment, both seem content with sending dangerous messages to each other, while still exercising restraint.

In this transnational contest of wills, however, Iran knows it is very much the weaker military player. The real danger will come if Tehran decides to employ the one military element that both sides have refrained from using to date – surprise.

Dr Rodger Shanahan is a Middle East and security analyst and an author.