Posted: 2024-11-18 20:12:23

The minutes of the Reserve Bank Board's recent meeting have just been released.

Our colleague, Senior Business Correspondent Peter Ryan, has sent across this summary to the blog:

Major changes in US economic policy have been cited as a potential risk to the Reserve Bank's stance in keeping interest rates higher for longer to combat persistent inflation.

In the minutes from the RBA board's meeting a fortnight ago, the central bank considered risks that could have "important implications for monetary policy" that could result in forecasts being "materially wrong".

These include "major changes in the US economic policy following the presidential election" and the possibility that stimulus proposed by Chinese authorities to breathe life into its economy might "differ from expectations".

The Reserve Bank board met on November 4 & 5 before the outcome of the US presidential election was known.

US President-elect Donald Trump threatened throughout his campaign to impose tariffs on goods coming into America by as much as 20%, and 60% on Chinese goods.

Economists believe Mr Trump's policies if implemented could stoke inflation and discourage central banks from cutting interest rates.

However, while the minutes do not reveal any war-gaming about scenarios, members warn that would need to occur if the risks eventuated despite the "pertinent details .. being unknown and unpredictable".

"The implications for the Australian economy of the scenarios with limited global reaction could ultimately be quite modest because of the potential for trade flows to be redirected," the minutes say.

But the minutes noted that whatever the outcome, US fiscal deficits are forecast to be large making sovereign debt "more sensitive to adverse shocks over time".

The RBA board also considered scenarios where its stance to keep interest rates on hold at 4.35% would need to be revised.

These include a dramatic decline in consumption where spending was "persistently and materially weaker" than forecast which would warrant a reduction in the cash rate.

The Board also considered a rapid decline in the labour market where "conditions eased materially and more sharply than expected" in turn lowering inflation.

One scenario being considered by the RBA is firms that are "hoarding" labour could be forced to "unwind" or lay off staff by not filling vacancies.

"If forward looking indicators begin to suggest a widespread easing in retrospective labour market conditions and a more rapid easing in inflation, the Board might need to consider a policy response."

However in leaving the cash rate on hold at 4.35%, the Board said it had "minimal tolerance to accommodate a more prolonged period of high inflation."

Market economists who had originally suggested February for the first interest rate cut are now pencilling-in May at the earliest.

The Reserve Bank board holds it final meeting of the year on December 10.

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