The timing of this rebel campaign couldn’t be worse for Assad’s allies. Russia, stretched thin by its grinding war in Ukraine, is unlikely to redeploy significant forces to Syria.
Bashar al-Assad and Russian Vladimir Putin, who will protect Russia’s interests, not Syria’s. Credit: AP
Its support, if it comes at all, will likely focus on safeguarding its naval bases along the Mediterranean and securing strategic areas in the Assad heartlands. In short: Russia will protect its interests, not Assad’s.
Iran, once the regime’s lifeline, is also under pressure. A relentless Israeli bombing campaign has decimated its military infrastructure in Syria, complicating Tehran’s ability to intervene on a large scale.
While Iran is unlikely to abandon Assad entirely, its role may shift to fortifying key corridors – like the one connecting Damascus to the coast and the land bridge linking Iraq and Lebanon – rather than reversing rebel gains across the map.
Meanwhile, the ripple effects of this renewed conflict could destabilise Syria’s broader diplomatic landscape. Assad was on the verge of a breakthrough, with Gulf states normalising relations with Damascus and lobbying Washington to ease sanctions. That momentum now hangs in the balance.
For the United States, this shifting reality could force a rethink of its Syria policy. Washington has long oscillated between tacitly tolerating Assad’s rule and supporting a fragmented status quo, where Kurdish forces control the north-east and rebels hold out in the north-west.
But a new possibility is emerging: pushing Assad’s regime to retreat further, creating conditions for refugees to return and reshaping Syria’s political map yet again.
Opposition fighters take pictures with their mobile phones next to the Old City in Aleppo, Syria.Credit: AP
The rebels’ gains, while significant, are unlikely to dislodge Assad from his core territories in Damascus and the coastal heartland.
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Yet, the mere fact that these frontlines are shifting is a reminder that Syria’s war is far from over, and that the fragile order Russia and Iran worked so hard to impose is now under serious strain.
The weeks ahead will reveal whether Assad’s allies can patch together another rescue, or if Syria’s long-frozen conflict is about to thaw in ways that could reshape the Levant and the wider region for years to come.
The Telegraph, London
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