The RFS took a novel approach and began publishing predictive maps as the tragedy unfolded. Once the last of the fires were out, fire and emergency services agencies across the country reflected on how the predictive maps could be developed to give communities not only real-time information about bushfires’ spread but predictions about where they could go next.

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For the past two years, researchers from RMIT, Deakin University and QUT, as well as emergency management personnel from every fire agency in the country, have been working to build dynamic predictive maps.

Given the high stakes, with people’s lives on the line, the testing has been rigorous.

Researcher Dr Amy Griffin from RMIT University, who works on the project, said the most recent testing involved eye-tracking technology to monitor how people looked at the maps, and whether more detailed maps created confusion and indecision. They hope to have the final design complete by 2026.

Asked whether researchers had considered the possibility of people relying on incorrect bushfire predictions, Griffin poses a different scenario.

During the Beaufort fires in Victoria in February, authorities published a static map that predicted the bushfire spread.

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“In that particular case, the prediction went in all directions, and their point there was really to just make people aware of the intensity of the risk and the fact that they couldn’t predict accurately which direction it was going to go,” she said.

“Until we have a crystal ball about weather prediction, we can’t actually solve that problem. But what we can do is we can help people understand that uncertainty, and in times when we have great uncertainty, they need to recognise that and adapt their behaviour to account for the fact that there’s more uncertainty than usual.”

Climate change is increasing the frequency and severity of bushfires.

Last month, the CSIRO and Bureau of Meteorology released new climate data showing Australia’s average temperatures have risen by 1.5 degrees since records began, while the average number of extreme bushfire days has risen by as many as 25 days a year in parts of the country.

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