The Australian results align with what has happened around the world, with Moana 2 surprising the cinema industry by setting a new record for an animated film in its opening weekend (outpacing Inside Out 2, which had set a new benchmark earlier this year). It has now grossed $629 million in its first six days.
Chief executive of Palace Cinemas, Benjamin Zeccola, noted how diverse the audience for the Disney animation was. Young families with kids were expected but the 21,800 ticket buyers in his cinemas over the week included “a significant number of adults and seniors”.
“People want an escape from the news,” Zeccola said. “The experience of Moana, which includes empowering and uplifting music, is what they’re craving right now.”
Wicked and Gladiator II have both opened strongly in cinemas.
While it’s a rare time since the pandemic that there are three mainstream films that audiences want to see, Keogh expected box office for the year to be about $950 million, which is 3-4 per cent down on last year and more than 20 per cent down on five years ago.
“We’re about 20 to 25 movies down this year [because of the Hollywood strikes],” Keogh said. “If you had those movies, you might be back to where you were pre-COVID.”
The shortage of blockbusters will extend into early next year, so Keogh thinks it will not be until 2026 that “we’ll be able to make a judgment on whether there’s longer-term structural damage to the industry [caused by the shutdowns and streaming] or not”.
Zeccola agreed that 2026 would give a better indication of whether cinema had been permanently affected.
But if blockbusters will remain in short supply for a while yet, fans of European and independent American cinema are being well served.
Zeccola said the number of “high quality art-house films” is up almost 20 per cent this year compared to pre-pandemic.
He counted 64, including Anatomy Of A Fall, Zone Of Interest, The Substance, Priscilla, The Holdovers, All Of Us Strangers and the coming Anora. Five years ago there was just 54, led by Parasite, Midsommar, Burning and Jojo Rabbit.
Box office for films released in fewer than 150 of the country’s roughly 370 cinemas is $120 million so far this year, compared to $105 million for the same period five years ago.
In shorter supply are Hollywood blockbusters on wider release (a release in more than 150 cinemas nominally puts a film in blockbuster territory).
At this stage in 2019, box office for such movies was $996 million. This year, it’s $250 million less.
With no new blockbuster this weekend – the biggest releases are the Cate Blanchett horror-comedy Rumours and the kooky Pharrell Williams’ Lego biopic Piece By Piece – the Gladiator-Wicked-Moana dominance is expected to continue for another week.
But there is one film Keogh would have loved to have in his cinemas: the adaptation of Paul Kelly’s song How To Make Gravy that has just launched on streaming service Binge without a cinema release.
“In terms of a piece of art and a celebration of Australian culture, for it not to be seen in cinemas around Christmas is a bit of a travesty,” he said.
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