Racegoers brave the rain during Melbourne Cup day at Royal Randwick. pic Mark Evans

“Unless we get a big downpour overnight I am confident the track will be OK,’’ Murphy said on Friday. “We have had over 110mls of rain this week but there has been little breaks in the weather with some sun and wind which has helped.

ANALYSIS: SATURDAY BEST WITH RAY & DUFF

HOT TIPS: WEEKEND BEST BETS

RACE WATCH: DAVO’S TIPS FOR RANDWICK

“Also, we are seeing the benefits of the sand-grooving work we did on the course proper earlier in the season. Overall, we are still a heavy 9 with some room to move. It can take a bit more rain yet.’’

She Will Reign is the only juvenile in either the Reisling Stakes or Todman Stakes to have won on heavy going while Jungle Edge (Challenge Stakes) and Astronomos (Randwick City Stakes) are noted mudlarks with three wins each on heavy tracks.

The heavy track won’t be a problem for She Will Reign.Source:News Corp Australia

The Group 1 Royal Randwick Guineas meeting has nine races with good field sizes but Murphy is adamant the equine traffic won’t cause long-term issues to the course proper before The Championships start on April 1.

“We have nearly a month before The Championships so that is plenty of time to get the track ready,’’ Murphy said. “When the track is wet like this it repairs quickly and recovers well.’’

BARRIERS

The best winning barriers at Royal Randwick for the last three years.

(In order of most wins)

1000m: 2, 5, 1, 8

1100m: 2, 5, 6, 8

1200m: 6, 4, 1, 3

1300m: 7, 6, 4, 2

1600m: 4, 6, 8, 1

2000m: 5, 4, 6, 1

TAB BIG BETS & MARKET MOVERS

Race 1: TAB Fixed Odds reports She Will Reign has $1.45-$1.50- $1.25, From Within $8-$6 including a wager of $600 at $8 following the scratching of Houtzen.

Race 2: Chauffeur $8-$7 with a bet of $200 at $8, Menari $2.80-$2.60 including bets of $500 at $2.80 twice, $300 at $2.80.

Race 3: Scarlet Rain $4-$3.20 with bets of $220 at $4, $200 at $3.50.

Race 5: Le Romain $6-$4.60- $5 with bets of $200 at $6, $500 at $5, $750 at $5, $200 at $4.60, Ugo Foscolo $8-$7.50-$8 with bets of $300 at $8, $500 at $7.50.

Race 6: Ball Of Muscle $7-$6, Supido $11-$8 with bets of $200 at $11, $200 at $9.50, Dal Cielo $9.50-$8 with bets of $200 at $9.50, $250 at $8.

Race 7: Man From Uncle $6 unchanged after bets of $500 at $6, $250 at $6, Comin Through $4.50-$4.60, Invincible Gem $9.50-$8 with a $400 e/w bet at $8/$2.64.

Race 8: Song And Laughter $13-$9.50 including a $1,000 wager at $13, Top Of My List $11-$9.50 with a $200 bet at $9.50.

EARLY QUADDIE

Race 2: 1, 2, 4, 6

Race 3: 1, 4, 6, 8

Race 4: 1, 3, 6

Race 5: 1, 2, 4, 8

Suggested bet $20

Bet percentage: 10.41%

QUADDIE

Race 6: 2, 4, 7, 9

Race 7: 2, 4, 5, 9

Race 8: 3, 11

Race 9: 3, 6, 7

Suggested bet: $20

Bet percentage: 20.83%

PRICE CHECK

Countess Marinov (Randwick, race eight), is not the worst $71 chance. She is fitter for three runs from a spell and was competitive at Rosehill last start when she ran fourth behind Hussterical. Countess Marinov prefers wet tracks, gets in on the limit weight in the Aspiration Quality and is over the odds.

TRIAL POINTERS

From Within (Randwick, race one) started $4 fav in the Magic Millions after an effortless win on debut at Canterbury. Sadly, she finished well down the order at the Gold Coast but she’s back on track now for her Golden Slipper tilt. She left trial watchers in no doubt as to her current state of health and well-being with that narrow win in a Warwick Farm heat on February 20, beating a Godolphin filly named Demerara, who is more than useful.

Trekking (Canberra, race seven, Sunday) is a Street Cry colt from the Godolphin stable and was tipped out with a view to the autumn after his comprehensive and very professional win at Rosehill on December 3. The colt was beaten by the smallest of margins in his heat at home at Warwick Farm 12 days ago but he was never tested at any stage. Quality colt.

WORK WHISPERS

Honesty Prevails (Randwick, race three) was disappointing on face value in the Light Fingers when well supported. That said she was off a reasonably long enforced absence and she does like the cut out of the track. The daughter of Redoute’s Choice worked on the Warwick Farm course proper on Tuesday timed over 1000m in 1:07.65s with a brisk 24.53s last 400m.

Music Magnate (Randwick, race five) is the reigning Doomben 10,000 winner who resumed with a thoroughly predictable victory in the Expressway on January 28. The Bjorn Baker-trained galloper has been kept ticking over with a recent trial win at Gosford by 3.3-lengths. Rounded off his work with a 1000m gallop on the Pro Ride at Warwick Farm on Thursday in 1: 12.33s, last 400m in 27.86s.

Music Magnate was kept up to speed with an impressive trial at Gosford last month. Picture: Grant PetersSource:Supplied

THE BEST BET

Top Of My List (Randwick, race eight) is a promising mare being tested at stakes level for the first time. She was impressive at Warwick Farm in extremely heavy conditions last start, beating Via Napoli. Top Of My List was only second-up and at 1600m last start and will be even fitter here. She is well drawn, gets in on the limit and is very effective on rain-affected tracks.

EACH WAY

Malaise (Randwick, race seven) has been improved by three solid efforts this campaign, resulting in second placings each time including behind Hey Doc in the Hayes Stakes last start when he didn’t have the best of luck in running. Malaise has to prove he is up to Group 1 level but he is a promising horse and has been effective on heavy going. At $15 he is great value in the Randwick Guineas.

THE JUDGMENT

ROYAL RANDWICK

RACE 5: CANTERBURY BMW STAKES (1300m)

Kris Lees (trainer) Le Romain: “Le Romain is back in really good order. The heavy track won’t worry him, he likes it wet. The little doubt is whether he is looking for a touch further but the heavy track will compensate for that.’’

Bjorn Baker (trainer) Music Magnate: “He was really good first-up and although five weeks between runs with a really testing track is normally a bit of a concern, we’ve given him a trial in between. His past record and how he galloped on Tuesday on a wet track at Warwick Farm, we’re pretty confident he’ll get through it.’’

Glenn Munsie (TAB): “Looking how the race will be run seems to suit Music Magnate. Likely to settle in first couple without a great deal of speed on and therefore run race to suit. He has won at only two starts on soft and heavy so track should be of no concern. Le Romain is honest and ultra consistent. I think these two will be too far in front of Chautauqua for him to run them down.’’

Grant Palmer (bookie): “Chautauqua went super first-up when charging home off a moderately run race, however with his racing style he will be back on the fence and at the short quote we are keen to take him on. Happy to back both Music Magnate and Le Romain who are proven in the wet and create their own luck.’’

Terry Kennedy (Sky Sports Radio): “I need to see more from Chautauqua and Music Magnate is one from one on a heavy track. But Hauraki gets through the heavy going, is a great fresh horse, has been tuned-up with a barrier trial and is now ready to strike.’’

Verdict: MUSIC MAGNATE

RACE 7: ROYAL RANDWICK GUINEAS (1600m)

Anthony Cummings (trainer) Man From Uncle: “He looks and races more like a mile-and-a-quarter horse. His quality and good rides have got him there at distances short of his best at his last two starts. He gets out to a more comfortable distance for him at 1600m.’’

Kristen Buchanan (trainer) Echo Effect: “I’m really happy with him, he loves the wet and yes he goes into a Group 1 but I think he should be racing in those races. Paul (King) has sorted him out and he is starting to settle a bit better and I think he will love the mile but I don’t know until we try it.”

Glenn Munsie (TAB): “Really warming to Malaise at the odds here. I remember the day he won on a Heavy 10 at Warwick Farm and looked very good in doing it. Sure to have slight fitness edge on these taking on the 1600m at his fourth run in. He battled on well to Hey Doc last start and he is a dominant favourite at Flemington. Hard to fault the filly Invincible Gem up in grade but only has to get through ground to run a race.’’

Grant Palmer (bookie): “This is a wide open race but going with the filly, Invincible Gem, who has the weight advantage and looks like she will get through the heavy going. Keeps improving each-start and we think she can step up another level again.’’

Terry Kennedy (Sky Sports Radio): “My faith in Comin’ Through is being tested, but won third-up last prep and counting on Joe Moreira to work his magic. Expect Acatour to run a mighty race at good odds.’’

Verdict: INVINCIBLE GEM

FLEMINGTON

RACE 7: AUSTRALIAN GUINEAS (1600m)

Tony McEvoy (trainer) Hey Doc: “He did win the Bill Stutt Stakes and then the other times at a mile the barriers probably cost him. I think he showed in the C.S. Hayes he’s come back a better horse and he was quite explosive at the end of 1400m. You would have to be a very game person to say he couldn’t run a mile on that performance.’’

John O’Shea (trainer) Morton’s Fork: “He’s been set for one race this preparation — the Australian Guineas. It was a nice run last start where he got cluttered up. It is an advantage for him to draw out, he loves a bit of galloping room. He’s fit and right at the top of his game and there’s no reason he can’t be right in the finish.”

Glenn Munsie (TAB): “I like Malaise in Sydney so have to be with Hey Doc here. Seems to be the one to get all the favours from alley to track speed and be too good. New kid on block Prized Icon brings fresh form into this and his first up run at Rosehill was far better than first look. Usually improves second-up.’’

Grant Palmer (bookie): “Hey Doc was dominant in winning against a similar field last start, he gets the gun draw here and is the one to beat. Attention goes in all exotics, he was outstanding in open Group 1 company last start and only needs to replicate to be in this.’’

Terry Kennedy (Sky Sports Radio): “The Guineas has been a graveyard for favourites in recent years, so I’m going away from Hey Doc. Divine Prophet ticks the boxes, is already a Group 1 winner and loves the 1600m.’’

Verdict: HEY DOC

Originally published as Inside mail: Big bets and market movers