THE Daily Telegraph racing editor Ray Thomas and Sky Thoroughbred Central’s form expert Ron Dufficy analyse all the big races at Royal Randwick and Flemington on Saturday.
HOT TIPS: WEEKEND BEST BETS
RACE WATCH: DAVO’S TIPS FOR RANDWICK
ROYAL RANDWICK
R1 (12.25pm): REISLING STAKES (1200m)
Thomas: She Will Reign’s Silver Slipper win stamped her as a juvenile of real quality and class. She was able to overcome a horror start and still score comfortably, running out the 1100m very strongly. Her effort last start indicated to me she won’t have an issue at 1200m and she does handle heavy tracks. She Will Reign can confirm Golden Slipper favouritism by maintaining her unbeaten record. Frolic unleashed a powerful finishing surge to win the Inglis Classic and although this is tougher, she is a filly of obvious potential. Lucky Louie needed the run first-up and will improve while From Within trialled particularly well.
Dufficy: The two-year-old races are very difficult as we just don’t know which way they are going. She Will Reign gets the chance to stamp herself as the Golden Slipper favourite in this race but I can’t get have her at $1.50. I am an unabashed From Within fan. I thought she was brilliant on debut at Canterbury and the form from that race has stacked up since. I am prepared to be forgiving of her Magic Millions failure as she had excuses. I loved her recent barrier trial and I rate her a good bet at $8. I concede She Will Reign is the horse to beat and Villa Carlotta is a quality filly with a soft track win to her credit. Frolic will be running on late.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: She Will Rein $1.45-$1.50- $1.25, From Within $8-$6 ($600 @ $8)
R2 (1.05pm): TODMAN STAKES (1200m)
Thomas: Menari was scratched last week with a very minor issue but he trialled brilliantly at Rosehill on Monday, revelling in the very heavy conditions to win easily. Menari should be going into the Todman Stakes undefeated and I think he could even be challenging for Slipper favouritism if he wins well here. I am a fan of the Godolphin colts, Trekking and Veranillo. Trekking, who skip the Todman and race in the Black Opal Stakes at Canberra on Sunday, is a huge talent. Veranillo was brave in the Silver Slipper and is improving with racing. Chauffeur has a lot of ability and Showtime is in the mix, too. Good race.
Dufficy: I feel Menari should be the Golden Slipper favourite on what he has shown so far. He was brilliant on debut and then desperately unlucky behind Pariah in the Canonbury Stakes. Pariah has since run an outstanding second in the Blue Diamond to frank the form. Veranillo has race fitness on his side but I was waiting for a gear change for this colt — perhaps they are waiting for the Golden Slipper. Invader is only a little horse but at least he has a 1200m soft track win, which is a huge asset in these sort of tracks. I’m interested in Jukebox and Muraaqeb but both could be going to Canberra on Sunday.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Chauffeur $8-$7 ($200 @ $8), Menari $2.80-$2.60 ($500 @ $2.80 TWICE, $300 @ $2.80)
R5 (2.50pm): CANTERBURY BMW STAKES (1300m)
Thomas: I feel this is D-Day for Chautauqua. He has not won a race this season and came in for criticism after running third in the Rubiton Stakes at Caulfield when resuming. But a closer examination of his run reveals that he did run the fastest sectionals of the meeting and was hitting the line hard. He may not have the sharpness for those short sprint races now and getting out to 1300m gives him his chance. I think he can bounce back to winning form. Le Romain is very classy and excels on rain-affected going. Music Magnate was brilliant in the Expressway Stakes and Impending, with the blinkers back on, can improve sharply.
Dufficy: This is a perfect race for Chautauqua to get back into the winner’s circle. He did win the TJ Smith on a soft 6 and he loves Randwick. I feel there is sufficient speed upfront to give Chautauqua the chance to show his best. Music Magnate is the danger. He is a complete racehorse, he can be ridden forward or back, handles all types of track conditions, and has trialled nicely since his brilliant first-up win. Le Romain has come back really well and loves the wet but it is just a matter of whether he is still sharp enough at 1300m is the question, although the wet track could compensate for that. Ugo Foscolo looks a three-year-old of untapped potential.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Le Romain $6-$4.60- $5 ($200 @ $6, $500 @ $5, $750 @ $5, $200 @ $4.60), Ugo Foscolo $8-$7.50-$8 ($300 @ $8, $500 @ $7.50)
R6 (3.30pm): CHALLENGE STAKES (1600m)
Thomas: English is a Group 1 winner on a soft track but whether she can reproduce her dazzling finishing burst on a heavy surface is the question. Her trials have been dynamic and I’m taking her on trust that she gets through conditions. Felines is very good first-up, has an outstanding Randwick 1000m record, and she is a heavy track winner. Redzel will be in front for a long way and Dal Cielo is in very good touch.
Dufficy: I expected a lot more from Supido in the Lightning Stakes but his trainer Mick Kent did find legitimate excuses for the sprinter. I think he can jump out of the ground here, particularly going around a bend, and at near double-figure odds he is a good bet. Dal Cielo is the danger as he has recent racing on his side. I concede English can be explosive on her day and would be the pick on a dry track. She has a few convictions on a wet track and I thought she was rock-bottom odds. Redzel is wound up after three barrier trials and he handles heavy going. He did beat Terravista on the Flemington straight course last start and that is no easy feat.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Ball Of Muscle $7-$6, Supido $11-$8 ($200 @ $11, $200 @ $9.50), Dal Cielo $9.50-$8 ($200 @ $9.50, $250 @ $8)
R7 (4.10pm): ROYAL RANDWICK GUINEAS (1600m)
Thomas: I’m going a little wide with Malaise. He has had three solid runs in Melbourne this preparation, finishing second in each including his effort behind Hey Doc in the Hayes Stakes last start. Malaise won his maiden on a very heavy track earlier in the season and I like him each way in an open race. Man From Uncle just keeps winning and should be even better suited out to 1600m. Echo Effect is a superior wet-tracker and if he runs 1600m he will be hard to beat. Comin’ Through loomed up to win the Hobartville Stakes last start but might have been one run short. He did win the Carbine Club Stakes over 1600m third-up back in the spring.
Dufficy: An even race. I quite like the credentials of Inference. He wasn’t suited by a slowly run Hobartville Stakes where he wandered into the worst part of the track. Inference was one of the better runs in that race, he is unbeaten second-up and has won on soft going. Comin’ Through will improve and is up to his right trip now. He maps quite well in this race. I agree with Malaise, he has had three runs back and is rock-hard fit. The knockout horse is Harper’s Choice who has had runs at 1800m and 1900m recently so fitness is not an issue for him.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Man From Uncle $6 unchanged ($500 @ $6, $250 @ $6), Comin Through $4.50-$4.60, Invincible Gem $9.50-$8 ($400 e/w @ $8/$2.64)
FLEMINGTON
R7 (4.30pm): AUSTRALIAN GUINEAS (1600m)
Thomas: Divine Prophet won the Caulfield Guineas in the spring but he was disappointing first-up in the Orr Stakes behind Black Heart Bart. However, Divine Prophet didn’t get a lot of galloping room and wasn’t beaten far on the line. He is better placed against his own age. Hey Doc is the big danger as he comes off a strong win in the Hayes Stakes. He gets the gun run from his inside draw. Attention was very game in the Futurity Stakes, although 1600m is a query. Prized Icon goes well at Flemington and will be finishing hard.
Dufficy: The bet I am having at massive odds is So Si Bon. He just got outsprinted over 1200m down the straight first-up but I love the fact he is second-up at the mile and Damien Oliver is sticking with him. I concede Hey Doc gets all the favours and, although I think he is a little query at the distance, the good barrier offsets that issue. The class of Divine Prophet ensures he stays under notice and I’m not ruling out Prized Icon. His run in the Hobartville Stakes was very similar to Inference. In a race where are probably 10 chances, So Si Bon at the odds for me.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Prized Icon $13-$10 ($200 e/w @ $13/$4), Divine Prophet $8-$9, Hey Doc $3.80-$3.40 ($400 @ $3.80, $200 @ $3.80 MULTIPLE TIMES, $300 @ $3.70, $1,000 @ $3.60 TWICE, $2,000 @ $3.50, $1,000 @ $3.40, $500 @ $3.40, $450 @ $3.40), Mortons Fork $11 unchanged ($1,000 @ $11), Fuhryk $11-$13
DUFF’S BEST BETS
ROYAL RANDWICK
BEST BET: Race 5, No. 1 CHAUTAUQUA
NEXT BEST: Race 9, No. 6 ASTRONOMOS
VALUE: Race 6, No. 3 SUPIDO
SATURDAY EXTRA
SHAYNE O’CASS’S BEST BETS
GOSFORD
BEST BET: RISPETTA (Race 5, No. 11)
Flashy and attractive daughter of French classic winner Lope De Vega out of a mare who is a half-sister to Private Steer. Tipped out after the lacklustre debut but has trialled so very well ahead of the return. Monitor market.
NEXT BEST: EXOTHERM (Race 7, No. 11)
Building up to a win now after those two runs back from the long break. The February 18 effort at Goulburn was a beauty, coming from near last to be beaten not too far. Ready now it appears.
VALUE: FENCOURT (Race 8, No. 7)
James Cummings-trained 3YO colt who sent out the right signals with that encouraging 1.5-lengths third at Wyong on February. 12. The horse went super second-up at his first-prep and that was at Rosehill.
JOCKEY TO FOLLOW: MITCHELL BELL
Bell has a great book — as always — for some of the big city stables. Even if he only wins one, here’s hopping it is Fencourt in the Get Out Stakes.
ARMIDALE
BEST BET: BLOOD RED MOON (Race 7, No. 4)
An honest, consistent and talented mare who is cherry ripe for the Guyra Cup now third-up after two runs over the 1100m. Her only visit to Armidale before this was a truly miraculous win. Go well.
NEXT BEST: MY LITTLE DIVA (Race 2, No. 10)
Has placed at three of her five runs so far including last start when one-length second to The Lion, who goes well. Races very handy, if not leads, so the barrier (2) is a godsend.
ONE MORE CHANCE: CLOSELY RELATED (Race 1, No. 7)
Has gone winless after 17 starts but bear in mind she has placed seven times, three from six at the trip and two from four at this venue.
Originally published as Saturday Best with Ray and Duff