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Chinese Premier Li Keqiang has touched down in Canberra for a five-day visit focussed on strengthening China's economic relationship with Australia and positioning his country as a bulwark against rising protectionism.
Mr Li will spend time in both Canberra and Sydney, and is bringing a substantial Chinese business delegation with him.
China analyst Peter Cai from the Lowy Institute said the visit would be framed by the isolationist rhetoric emanating from the White House under US President Donald Trump.
"Trump's protectionism has worried US allies, and this is a great opportunity for Li to fill the strategic void and promote China as a champion of free trade in this region and the globe," Mr Cai said.
"China is offering clear alternatives in the wake of the collapse of free trade deals and trying to promote itself as a centre of stability in uncertain times."
Mr Li hinted at this strategic flux in an editorial published in the Australian newspaper, arguing that Australia and China faced "a disoriented era beset by uncertainties".
"Self-isolation will never lead one to the land of happiness. Cutting oneself off could neither ensure success of one's own endeavour nor peace and development of the world at large," Mr Li wrote.
"Protectionism offers no genuine protection. History cannot be turned back, just as the trend of the times cannot be reversed."
China watchers in the Federal Government retain a healthy scepticism towards some of this rhetoric on trade liberalisation — noting that foreign companies trying to do business in China still face some formidable barriers, and an unpredictable regulatory environment.
Analysts agree.
"If you're trying to crack the services market in China you face protectionism, and intense competition with home-grown companies. They have been nurtured as national champions and when they've grown to a certain size it's hard to compete with them," Mr Cai said.
Free trade agreement expected to deliver for Australia
But officials say the China-Australia Free Trade Agreement (ChAFTA) has still opened up enormous new opportunities for Australian companies.
Trade Minister Steve Ciobo has flagged that both countries will announce further trade liberalisation measures under the agreement during Mr Li's visit.
Australian beef producers expect that will include moves to give Australian chilled beef greater access to the Chinese market.
"I've certainly been very buoyed by the reception Australia's had in China … and I'm very confident we'll be able to get some additional announcements in respect of ChAFTA in Premier Li's visit", Mr Ciobo said.
China has also flagged there will be announcements on technology and innovation — including new joint research initiatives.
And Mr Li will be keen to encourage Australian companies to take part in its "Belt and Road" initiative — a vast series of infrastructure projects stretching from Central Asia to Europe, and across South East Asia, South Asia, and Africa.
Mr Ciobo said Australian companies would be well positioned to take part.
"Obviously Australia has a high degree of expertise both in relation to execution but also financing of infrastructure," he said.
"So there certainly will be scope for Australian businesses in the future to be involved in belt-road initiative projects."
Officials will want public discussion of the visit to remain firmly focussed on economic issues. But both sides will need to confront some thornier questions as well.
Human rights, strategic conflicts to shadow visit
Mr Li is expected to press the Federal Government to finalise the contentious Australia-China extradition treaty, which has been stalled for years.
The Coalition is now pushing ahead with ratifying the treaty, despite fierce criticism from human rights advocates who argue that China's justice system is hopelessly compromised, and anyone extradited there would be unable to get a fair trial.
But there's a chance the Senate will block the agreement — with Labor pushing for greater safeguards to be put in place and some crossbench Senators warning they will fight it at every step.
Mr Li will also be shadowed by the broader strategic conflicts looming over the region.
Australia has watched China's militarisation of the South China Sea with growing unease.
Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull has said he will "speak frankly and constructively" to Mr Li about "maintaining peace and stability in the Asia-Pacific" — a clear reference to Chinese aggression in the region.
Foreign Minister Julie Bishop also irritated Beijing by using a recent speech in Singapore to urge China to embrace liberal democracy, calling it "the most successful foundation for nations seeking economic prosperity and social stability".
One government source said the speech was not aimed largely at China — but was simply a staunch defence of the institutions which have guaranteed the region's prosperity. And they said neither side would raise the speech during the visit because Chinese officials would interpret that as a deliberate attempt to humiliate Mr Li.
There's another subject that won't be directly raised.
Some Australian officials are increasingly concerned about the way the Chinese government has steadily built influence in Australia.
China has moved to consolidate its hold on the local Chinese-language media, and has been working to exert more control over the large Chinese student community in Australia.
But in the interests of diplomacy the topic of Beijing's sway here is unlikely to be formally discussed by the leaders.
Topics: trade, business-economics-and-finance, world-politics, foreign-affairs, asia, pacific, china, australia
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