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The old saying is that there are lies, damn lies and statistics, but what do they really mean when it comes to the top of the AFL?
One thing we can count on is that football is always evolving.
Whether it's Ron Barassi's attacking handball, Rodney Eade's flooding or Denis Pagan's famous paddock, coaches are always looking to gain an advantage through a new approach.
When a new tactic works, there are two common responses.
Most of the league rushes to copy the winner's plan, while (often simultaneously) working feverishly to find a way of destroying it.
So what do the stats tell us about the changing face of the AFL premiers in the last nine years, and can they give us a hint of where things will go from here?
The cluster: Hawthorn 2008
The Hawks had finished four games behind 2007 premiers Geelong, but were on an upward trajectory under coach Alistair Clarkson — but few people saw the extent of what was coming in the 2008 season.
Clarkson's innovation was the cluster, or the rolling zone. The zone is often used in defence, but the Hawks decided to apply it across the entire field in hopes of corralling the Cats.
The pressure was not related to tackles or contested possession — the Hawks averaged 51.2 tackles per game (12th) and 109.6 in contested ball (15th) — but more the weight of numbers in key areas leading to turnovers.
When Hawthorn got the ball, the most likely outcome was for Sam Mitchell to get possession and direct the play. Often this led to spearhead Lance Franklin, who kicked 102 goals in the home-and-away season to win the Coleman Medal.
The ultimate test of Clarkson's plan came in the grand final, where Hawthorn pressured the Cats into mistake after mistake and won the flag by 26 points.
Demolition men: Geelong 2009, 2011
Mark Thompson's Cats missed out on going back-to-back when the Hawks upset them in the 2008 grand final to win the flag.
That loss burned fiercely at the Cattery, and the following year Geelong answered the critics in some style.
The Cats outpossessed (417.5 disposals a game), out-handballed (210.1), outran and outscored (15.2 goals a game) their opponents in a dominant season.
The defence wasn't overly stingy, conceding 84 points a game, but given they were scoring a tick over 105 points each outing, that wasn't really an issue.
The trio of Joel Selwood, Jimmy Bartel and Gary Ablett helped matters immensely, Steve Johnson and Tom Hawkins provided options up forward, and a timely toe-poke from full-back Matthew Scarlett at the MCG didn't hurt either.
Two years later it was a different Cats side that took all before them. Geelong had nearly 20 more contested possessions, close to 50 fewer handballs, almost 60 inside 50s (+6.5), two more goals and 8.9 points less conceded a game.
Put simply, they were better, smarter and more experienced. They completed a third flag in five years with a solid win over Collingwood in the grand final.
Pressure play: Collingwood 2010
Rather than blow teams away with unstoppable attacking brilliance, Mick Malthouse's Pies in 2010 generated score after score with defensive pressure.
The use of the forward press meant every single player — including those in the front six — were called upon to tackle their opponents to a standstill and keep the ball in, even if Collingwood didn't have control of it.
The tactic worked — Collingwood led the league in average tackles (74.8) and inside 50s (56.8), as other teams gave up the ball and were duly punished on the scoreboard.
They averaged 30 scoring shots a game, outdoing the all-conquering Cats of '09.
The stars were plentiful, from rebounding half-back Harry O'Brien to Dane Swan and Scott Pendlebury in the centre and Alan Didak and Travis Cloke up forward.
The slingshot is fired: Sydney 2012
Generally, if a team has big stats in rebound 50s, it tends to mean their defence is under pressure and they're not very good overall.
In 2012, however, the Sydney Swans took a different approach. Under coach Paul Roos, the Swans introduced the concept of "slingshot football", where they would absorb everything their opponents could throw at them, and then hit them twice as hard on the counter.
It wasn't just rebounding that did it — the Swans were top in contested ball (151.4 per game), tackles (73.2) and stoppages (28.5) as they tried to chew up time and make things as hard as humanly possible for their rivals to kick a winning score.
But the Sydneysiders gave a perfect example of football, Swans-style in the grand final against Hawthorn.
The Swans were under huge pressure, but then defender Alex Johnson cut off a Hawks attack and the ball went quickly down the other end, culminating in a Sam Reid goal 100-plus metres later.
If you fast forward to the list of prelim finalists in 2016, you see there was a big philosophical split emerging in this area.
The Dogs averaged just 34 rebound 50s a game in 2016, compared with a league average of 38.7. Their grand final opponents, the Swans, averaged 42.3 a game, narrowly ahead of the struggling defence of the Lions.
The side the Swans beat to get to the final, the Cats, had only 33.8 R50s a game, which was the fewest in the league.
But if GWS had managed to get past the Dogs in their prelim, it would have been a sling-a-thon in the grand final, as the Giants' quick movement out of defence averaged 40.8 R50s a game.
Hawks hit top gear: Hawthorn 2013-15
The Hawks had not been able to keep going with the cluster and coach Clarkson abandoned it in 2011 for a new game plan that focused on possession football.
The emphasis was on kicking accuracy, driven in large part by a pair of left-footers — Grant Birchall and Matthew Suckling — being able to clear the congestion and hit targets out of defence.
Hawthorn got to the grand final in 2012 but lost to the Swans, and then the final piece in the puzzle was the arrival of former Western Bulldogs defender Brian Lake in the trade period.
Comparing 2013 to the 2008 champion side: there was a lot more tackling (13 more on average), contested possessions (+32.6), clearances (+7) and stoppages (+6.1) and a lot less marks (down 23 on average).
They had an array of attacking targets, including speed merchants Isaac Smith, Cyril Rioli, Brad Hill and Paul Puopolo, plus young forward Jack Gunston joining established threats like Franklin, Jarryd Roughead and David Hale . The result was a whopping 114.7 points scored per game.
In 2014, the Hawks backed up with another title. Hawthorn upped the ante in possessions, hit outs (+3.8 a game), clearances (+2.8) and stoppages (+4.2), with a very similar result to the previous year.
Even though they lost more games, the Hawks of 2015 added one last element — an ability to strangle sides in defence, averaging a miserly 70.4 points a game.
The fairytale team: Western Bulldogs 2016
What can we say about the Bulldogs, then? The first side to win the flag from seventh, they did not sweep all before them all year, but they were a cohesive team that really hit their straps at the perfect time for finals.
They had plenty of positives to point to — an ability to run all day, heavy on handballs (199.4 per game) and contested possessions, but also amassing vast numbers of uncontested possessions (263.5, number one in the league).
They averaged 25 more per game, for example, than prelim opponents GWS and 32 more than the Swans, who they beat in the grand final.
Clearances (37.6 per game, eighth) weren't as much of an issue, as the key was being able to move the ball fast through their fleet of runners — like Jason Johannisen, Jack Macrae, Liam Picken, Luke Dahlhaus and of course, Marcus 'The Bont' Bontempelli — to stop oppositions stemming the tide.
The emergence of spearhead Tom Boyd in the grand final is an excellent sign, and coupled with the return from suspension of Stewart Crameri and the arrival of target man Travis Cloke, it will be interesting to see if the Bulldogs change their plan of attack.
This year's champs: GWS?
As our People's Predictions have made very clear, however, the public, not to mention the pundits and the vast majority of AFL team captains, feel it's the year of the Giants this season.
If they are to go on and win the flag in 2017, the template GWS will set is slightly different.
The Giants will be heavy kicking, light on handball, using Shane Mumford and a stellar midfield to drive their attack. They will be big on clearances (41, best in 2016) and rely on an avalanche of forward 50 entries (58.1, number one last year) to overwhelm defences and achieve winning scores.
Again, there is the possibility of a Swans win, which would put the emphasis back on rebound football.
The bottom line is we don't know what's in store for 2017, but this could well be a big crossroads year for the league — only time will tell.
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