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Posted: 2017-07-19 01:21:38

The big question now about Tuesday's Reserve Bank minutes that apparently frightened the horses and roiled markets: will the story last till the end of the week or just today?

Who didn't know that, if the Australian economy was absolutely purring, growing at its full potential with inflation sitting in the sweet spot of 2.5 per cent, the RBA would like to increase the cash rate by a couple of hundred points? This is not news.

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The only change is that the RBA board minutes made it explicit: in a Goldilocks Australia, the cash rate would be 3.5 per cent instead of the present 1.5. 

But please note that considerable qualifier – that's with everything running perfectly. It's not and, despite the hopes expressed by the RBA, it doesn't like being "just right" at any foreseeable point.

Of course changes in the RBA minutes are themselves news. They send a message. Under Governor Lowe, there also seems to be a shift towards wanting to give more information – part of the bank's information evolution that received a big kick on under Governor Stevens.

So why did the RBA bother to spell out to the commentariat what every bank manager is supposed to tell home loan applicants, that interests may rise a few hundred points at some indeterminant time?

One reason would be to underline its optimism about the economic outlook, its belief (or hope) that the world is indeed becoming a nicer place.

Another reason would be to lend a hand to APRA and its efforts to cool the hotter parts of the real estate market. Spelling out that rates should rise might give the more speculative marginal borrower pause to think about fibbing on their credit application.

The minutes are the first step in the softening up process towards the hoped-for steady return to "neutral" rates.

To get rates up 200 points though, business investment and wages growth would have to markedly pick up, the international trade would have to become more benign and inflation would have to rise.

For all that the RBA hopes, there's stuff-all indication of landing that quadrella.

The minutes indicated the RBA has woken up to the states-based infrastructure boom – or at least the New South Wales and Victorian infrastructure boom. But it's a big leap to think that will cause a massive spill over in wages growth from the mainly Sydney and Melbourne construction industry.

Low inflation and wages growth are international phenomena. Commodity prices, automation, the globalised work force and spare capacity in general say there's no change on the horizon.

And as for the non-resources business investment surge, the RBA has been beating the bushes searching for that ever since the worst of the GFC was over. It's still looking.

So this RBA headline, too, will pass. That said, the minutes also are reminding us that we are not as badly off as many of us like to think.

The 200 point talk should focus attention on that. Yes, household debt as a percentage of disposable income is very high – but we've mostly used that debt to buy assets that have increased in value to make us wealthier. And the cost of servicing that debt remains historically low. We're even being smarter about personal non-mortgage debt. 

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