Failure by the Turnbull government to settle on a clean energy target risks it losing recently restored momentum in the clean energy industry and undermining the credibility of Australia's global climate commitments, the head of General Electric's renewables division says.
The US energy giant has $1.6 billion in new wind farm projects under way in Australia that will add 800 megawatts of capacity to the grid as the industry rebounds from policy uncertainty during the Abbott government.
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"We've seen the market go from good to zero, to now from zero to very good," Jerome Pecresse, president and chief executive of GE Renewable Energy, said, adding he was "very positively impressed by this momentum".
But divisions within the federal Coalition have prompted the Turnbull government to postpone a decision on a clean energy target beyond 2020, as recommended by the Finkel Review into energy security by chief scientist Alan Finkel.
While the absence of an energy policy after the decade's end will not be a "doomsday scenario", developers will build fewer wind and solar farms, and they will be more costly and slower to roll out.
"At some point of time, [international] capital will need reassurance about political stability and visibility to continue to flow into Australia," Mr Pecresse said.
Momentum would erode without a target and "the ability of Australia to meet its Paris commitment will probably become less and less credible as time goes by", Mr Pecresse said.
Australia has pledged to cut 2005-level greenhouse gas emissions by 26 to 28 per cent by 2030 as part of global efforts to keep planetary warming under 2 degrees versus pre-industrial times.
Wind energy costs have dropped by about half in five years to less than $60 a megawatt-hour, making it cheaper than a new fossil fuel plant, GE said. Large-scale solar farm costs are falling even faster, sinking to about $100/MWh this year.
Globally, GE's renewable division has installed about 370 gigawatts of capacity, or about six times Australia's total. That tally is mostly hydro, including part of the Snowy and Hydro Tasmania plant, while wind farms total almost 60GW.
Australia's recent revival – as companies race to meet the 2020 renewable energy target of 33,000 GW hours – has lifted the nation to be among three of GE's largest markets this year, behind only the US and Germany.
"This year we are hopeful we can book 1GW of new orders" in Australia, Mr Pecresse said.
The abundance of good wind resources makes Australian costs globally competitive, and many prospective onshore sites remain. Off-shore wind farms, increasingly common in Europe and China, aren't likely to feature in Australia for a while yet.
"[It will be] at least five years before it comes to Australia but it will come," Mr Pecresse said. "It's proven technology."
Less proven, though, is concentrated solar power. While GE is developing a 120MW plant in Israel that will store energy in molten salts, the technology is likely to remain "niche" for some time except in markets such as the Middle East, he said.
Solar photovoltaics, however, have emerged as a key rival for wind energy. While GE supplies electronics and other equipment to solar PV, the company is not a major player in the industry.
"We'll have to think about if we can get back into solar via the storage door," Mr Pecresse said, adding that pumped hydro and batteries offer renewables a further "step change" in competitiveness compared with fossil fuel energy.