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Posted: 2017-07-20 03:35:25

 Myer's strategy of weaning its customers off their addiction to large-scale price discounting was always going to be risky.

The profit downgrade it announced on Thursday was evidence it didn't win the roll of that dice.

Myer cuts profit guidance

Myer has cut its net profit after tax forecast for the fiscal 2017 year. Vision courtesy ABC News

In reducing its reliance on discount-driven revenue, Myer has found itself swimming against the tide with most other retailers that have been relying on big price cuts to attract consumers to the cash registers.

The strategic overhaul of Myer is now showing dangerous signs of coming apart at the seams, with one of its major "New Myer" architects, deputy chief executive Daniel Bracken, leaving after 2½ years, which is half way through Myer's retail transformation.

In a third body blow to Myer, two of its crucial brands are in trouble.

TopShop, which was to be the lynchpin of its push to capture the younger apparel market, will leave Myer stores after the Australian licensee was placed into administration. Myer will sustain a $6.8 million loss on the value of its investment in TopShop.

At the more exclusive end, the Myer-owned exclusive Sass & Bide brand is performing so poorly that Myer has had to write down its value by almost $39 million.

Over the past nine months, Myer has alerted investors to the deteriorating performance of Sass & Bide and the drag this brand on revenue growth.

When you add up these write downs and as much as $20 million in "New Myer" implementation costs, the profit left for the 2017 year will be meagre.

Shareholders sold down Myer stock on Thursday morning - in part because it will fall short of the profit guidance that had been given and confirmed on two occasions this year.

But there are some who are now questioning the wisdom of the transformation of the department store.

Myer is clearly not alone among retailers, particularly those focused in apparel. Most are experiencing very tough trading conditions.

Regardless of the series of body blows that Myer announced on Thursday, chief executive Richard Umbers is sticking to the transformation plan.

For a series of reasons, including ferocious competition from new offshore entrants like H&M, weak consumer confidence, low wages growth and high consumer debt, retail has been struggling.

It seems to be a dangerous time for Myer to pare back discounting. Thus it is no coincidence that Myer's revenue growth fell off a cliff in both January and July - when the end of season sales were in full force across the retail industry.

The "New Myer" plan was all about enhancing the appeal of Myer by improving the experience and the product on offer to entice customers.

But when Myer released its first-half results (which included January) there were clear signs that revenue was struggling, but it stuck to its projections that net profit for the full year would be higher than $69.3 million (with the caveat that this could be achieved if there were no repeat of the January conditions).

Regardless of the series of body blows that Myer announced on Thursday, chief executive Richard Umbers is sticking to the transformation plan.

He has had plenty of success in improving productivity, internal processes and cutting costs.

"We are responding to the challenging external environment in a way that preserves the integrity of the 'New Myer' strategy that is built around customer service, engaging retail experiences and wanted brands, while continuing our focus on efficiency and productivity."

But in retailing it's impossible to grow profit unless revenue grows. And this is the challenge that Umbers faces.

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