After 12 weeks of the NFL season, the New England Patriots are now a heavy favourite to win the Super Bowl, and only five other teams have a legit shot to beat them.

Using Nate Silver’s “2017 NFL Predictions,” a model that rates each team and then projects how the regular season and playoffs will play out, we can get a better sense of which teams are the true Super Bowl contenders.

Heading into Week 13, the Patriots (won the Super Bowl in 28% of simulations) are now the favourite to win it all. In the NFC, the Philadelphia Eagles are the favourite to face the Pats in the Super Bow and have a 17% chance to win it all. If we use 5% as the cut off (1 in 20 shot), there are only six teams being given a legit shot to win the Super Bowl, with seven other teams just missing the cut.

Here are the 13 teams that still have at least a 1% chance to win the Super Bowl:

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