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Posted: 2018-05-22 09:00:46

Dairy farmers were starting to see allocated irrigation water prices rise across southern Australia.

A key area to watch, Rabobank said, was the El Nino-Southern Oscillation in the Pacific.

El Ninos, which are marked by relatively warm conditions in the eastern tropical Pacific compared with the west, tend to produce drier and hotter conditions for eastern Australia as rainfall shifts eastwards.

The bureau's latest ENSO report released on Tuesday showed two of eight international climate models now indicate an El Nino will develop during the coming spring, with a third approaching threshold levels.

Two of the eight models used by the Bureau of Meteorology tip El Nino thresholds being reached by next southern spring.

Two of the eight models used by the Bureau of Meteorology tip El Nino thresholds being reached by next southern spring.

Photo: BoM

The bureau stressed there remains a large model spread, and there have been false alarms in recent years when there had been stronger model signals than currently seen.

Still, the models had shifted from two weeks earlier, when only one of the model runs approached El Nino thresholds.

The region of the Pacific closely monitored for this climate pattern, known as Nino3.4, was positive for the first time since last August.

"Models suggest further warming of the tropical Pacific Ocean is possible over the coming months," the bureau said.

Conditions in the Indian Ocean, which also influence rainfall over the Australian continent, are currently holding a neutral pattern, the bureau said.

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