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Posted: 2018-06-15 05:42:03

The Paris climate agreement, adopted by almost 200 nations in 2015, set a goal of limiting warming to "well below" a rise of 2 degrees above pre-industrial times while "pursuing efforts" for the tougher 1.5-degree goal.

A Greenpeace image showing the shadow of US President Donald Trump, who pulled the US out of the Paris Agreement, is projected onto the facade of the US embassy in Berlin last June.

A Greenpeace image showing the shadow of US President Donald Trump, who pulled the US out of the Paris Agreement, is projected onto the facade of the US embassy in Berlin last June.

Photo: AP

The deal has been weakened after US President Donald Trump decided last year to pull out and promote US fossil fuels.

Temperatures are already up about 1 degrees and are rising at a rate of about 0.2 degrees a decade, according to the draft, requested by world leaders as part of the Paris Agreement.

"Economic growth is projected to be lower at 2° warming than at 1.5° for many developed and developing countries," it said, drained by impacts such as floods or droughts that can undermine crop growth or an increase in human deaths from heatwaves.

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In a plus-1.5-degree world, for instance, sea level rise would be 10 centimetres less than with 2 degrees, exposing about 10 million fewer people in coastal areas to risks such as floods, storm surges or salt spray damaging crops.

It says current government pledges in the Paris Agreement are too weak to limit warming to 1.5 degrees.

IPCC spokesman Jonathan Lynn said it did not comment on the contents of draft reports while work was still ongoing.

"It's all a bit punchier," said one official with access to the report who said it seemed slightly less pessimistic about prospects of limiting a rise in global temperatures that would affect the poorest nations hardest.

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The report outlines one new scenario to stay below 1.5 degrees, for instance, in which technological innovations and changes in lifestyles could mean sharply lower energy demand by 2050 even with rising economic growth.

And there is no sign that the draft has been watered down by Trump's doubts that climate change is driven by man-made greenhouse gases.

The draft says renewable energies - such as wind, solar and hydro power - would have to surge by 60 per cent from 2020 levels by 2050 to stay below 1.5 degrees, "while primary energy from coal decreases by two-thirds".

By 2050, that meant renewables would supply between 49 and 67 per cent of primary energy.

The report says governments may have to find ways to extract vast amounts of carbon from the air, for instance by planting vast forests, to turn down the global thermostat if warming overshoots the 1.5-degree target.

It omits radical geo-engineering fixes such as spraying chemicals high into the atmosphere to dim sunlight, saying such measures "face large uncertainties and knowledge gaps".

Reuters

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