"Although I wouldn't say the Liberals did too much better on that front either. So really, my voting came down to who I thought was the least-worst candidate."

That cynical outlook neatly captures the spirit of many Braddon residents, who just feel a bit "over" politics. Only months ago, they went through a bitterly-fought state election. They know another federal poll will be held soon. And they are utterly used to the steady stream of pork-barrelling that accompanies any campaign in such a marginal seat.

"I think there's a real disliking of politicians to start with, and politics in general here," says Bingley. "So a byelection is just the cherry on top."

Like many young Tasmanians, Bingley has moved to the mainland to study. This exodus is nothing new, but the country's smallest state has been trying to turn that around, with a degree of success. Statewide, the unemployment rate has fallen to 6 per cent from 8 per cent since 2013. According to the Australian Bureau of Statistics, unemployment in the statistical area closely matching Braddon was 6.3 per cent in May.

At doorstops with federal ministers this week, Liberal candidate and former MP Brett Whiteley made hay of the region's economic turnaround. Agriculture was "going ballistic", he said, while there was "new life in mining", including 500 jobs announced in the past three weeks alone. Defence Industry Minister Christopher Pyne described it as an economic "sea change" following a tour of fibreglass manufacturer Penguin Composites, near Devonport.

"The vibe in Tasmania is diametrically different to what it was when I campaigned here a few years ago, when young people were very disheartened," Pyne told Fairfax Media. "They’re not now, because they do feel like the government is delivering."

The Liberals' strategy in Braddon is to tie Whiteley to the successes of the Hodgman government in Hobart and the fortunate economic conditions enjoyed by the Turnbull administration in Canberra. Billboards lining the Bass Highway, which links the major townships along the north-west coast, depict Whiteley next to Turnbull and Hodgman with the tagline: "Delivering for Braddon."

The pitch to voters is an appeal to pragmatism and self-interest: dump Keay, who sat in opposition for two years while ineligible, and reinstall Whiteley, who will work with the mob that's in power.

"That's what Braddon needs - a member of Parliament who is part of a government," Turnbull said while visiting the seat on Friday.

Doorknocking in the wind and rain earlier in the week, Keay scoffed at that argument. "What, for a very short period of time?" she said, confident of a Labor victory at the general election.

Keay says Whiteley has a "very one-dimensional" approach to representative politics. "He sees it as spending money," she tells Fairfax Media. "That's not just what an MP does. Half the country is in opposition. Being an effective MP is about affecting positive change in individual people's lives."

There is a commonly-held view in Braddon that neither candidate is particularly well-equipped to do that. Both contenders have sceptics or detractors on their own side.

Leanne Minshull, who runs the Tasmanian branch of progressive think tank The Australia Institute, works with Labor and other non-Liberal parties. But she concedes the apathy throughout the electorate stems from the fact that "neither of the candidates are really standouts".

Some Liberals in the electorate are furious about the party returning to Whiteley, who was booted out of office in 2016. He was also defeated by a rival Liberal at the 2010 state election under Tasmania's Hare-Clark voting system.

Whiteley was preselected by the state executive behind closed doors, angering some members, who leaked their frustrations to local and national media. "We had better candidates, I thought," says one disgruntled Liberal veteran, who refuses to campaign for Whiteley. "A lot of people believed we needed a fresh face."

The aggressive and divisive state director of the Liberal Party in Tasmania for the past seven years is  former bottle shop owner Sam McQuestin. Bruised by their interactions during her brief flirtation with the Liberals, former Tasmanian senator Jacqui Lambie describes him as "savage" and "a bully".

Turnbull's office nominates McQuestin as the contact point for campaign activities in Braddon. When Fairfax Media requests an interview with Whiteley, he says to ask his minder Felix Ellis, a failed state election candidate. Ellis says it's a matter for McQuestin, who does not return any of Fairfax Media's calls or text messages.

Whiteley is one of four candidates who rock up to an event hosted by the Australian Forest Products Association in Somerset on Wednesday. The photo opportunity is also a chance for the industry to get in on the byelection gravy train, presenting a $10 million list of demands. When Fairfax Media asks Whiteley and Keay whether they will ask their party leaders for the money, neither gives a straight answer.

"That'd be the question that a Sydney journalist would ask," Whiteley replies.

Down at the Beach Hotel on the Burnie foreshore, where punters are much more interested in a pool competition final than the byelection, barman Michael Avery reveals he voted for Whiteley in 2016. Will he do so again?

"No!" he snorts. "No one liked him before, no one’s going to like him again. Why would you bring him back in?"

Avery, like many voters Fairfax Media encounters, plans to vote for independent Craig Garland, a rogue fisherman collecting the protest vote against the major parties. Garland notched up 2000 votes at the state election following an almost non-existent $800 campaign. Observers such as Minshull believe he could net up to 10 per cent of the vote this time - and dictate the outcome.

"It will probably be the preferences that come out of Craig that are going to decide who sits there," Minshull says.

Garland is directing his preferences to Labor. He is aggrieved by the state Liberals' support for large-scale salmon farming around Tasmania, and says Keay "cares about the community". But he also bashes Labor as "hypocrites" when it comes to looking after the working class.

Labor is doing its best to appeal to Garland's sizeable fan base of recreational fishers. Bill Shorten was in town with Keay on Monday to announce a $10 million "supporting recreational fishing fund". The money will be spent upgrading about 40 boat ramps around the country. Labor identified three ramps in Braddon that could qualify for the program.

It's small-scale stuff - but tactically smart, says veteran local reporter Sean Ford. "If that swings 200-300 votes, or even 200-300 extra Garland preferences to Labor, that could be the clincher," he says.

Polling puts the byelection on a knife edge, with Labor narrowing after early surveys gave Whiteley a stronger lead. Tasmanian psephologist Kevin Bonham says there's a "vibe" the Liberals will win, but not much published data to back that up. On the other hand, if a typical byelection pattern were to be followed, Labor would sweep home with an increased margin.

"There's a high range of uncertainty," Bonham says. "Seat polls are so inaccurate that it’s hard to draw much of a conclusion."

Watching all this intently from the sidelines is Lambie, the former independent senator who bowed out last year due to her own dual citizenship. Her Jacqui Lambie Network did not perform well at the state election and she is keeping her powder dry - and money saved - for another tilt at the Senate, for which her prospects are reasonable.

Lambie leans toward Labor in sentiment, arguing the party's economic policies would be better for the state's north-west. But she believes the "trust thing" around Keay's dual citizenship will have an impact.

Keay remained in Parliament for months after admitting her citizenship renunciation did not come into effect until after the 2016 election. Like other MPs, she waited for the High Court to clarify its interpretation of the so-called "reasonable steps" test in its ruling on former Labor senator Katy Gallagher.

"That's been an issue," Lambie says. "That seems to be a real sticking point here."

It's certainly an issue the Liberals have exploited in attack ads, with a television commercial totting up Keay's salary and entitlements during the period, and arriving at a figure of $126,227 - "all money she wasn't entitled to". They do not mention former Tasmanian Liberal senator Stephen Parry, who was also bundled out in the citizenship fiasco. His replacement, Richard Colbeck, now traverses the electorate beside Whiteley.

Keay says people don't raise the citizenship issue with her - or if they do, they say "how stupid the whole thing is in terms of the constitutional aspect of it". She won't countenance the consequences for Shorten's leadership if Labor becomes the only party to lose a seat from the citizenship debacle.

Third-generation Labor voter Gavin Campbell, a retired school principal living in Somerset, is as forgiving as they come. "She was given information from someone above her to say that she was OK," he says. "With that information not being quite right, I'm quite happy to vote for her again."

When all is said and done, these voters have much more in their hands than the immediate futures of Keay and Whiteley. A loss for Labor here, or indeed in Longman in Queensland, will raise doubts about Shorten and spur his rival Anthony Albanese. It would also recast the narrative about the Turnbull government, which was almost written off halfway into its term.

Pyne, a political diehard who has been in the game 25 years, smells a coup afoot. As Leader of the House of Representatives - who has copped some embarrassing failures when MPs went missing during divisions - he also has an eye on how a victory in Braddon would shore up the government's position more broadly.

"It’s a one-in-a-100-year event if we win," he says. "The reasons why ministers are here is because we think it’ll be better for Braddon to be represented by Liberals than by Labor. And it would make an enormous difference, of course, for the government's stability if we had extra seats. A one-seat majority is a one-seat majority - it would be nice if it were two or three."