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Posted: 2018-08-01 04:26:55

Coal-powered generation is expected to continue to account for more than 60 per cent of all generation in 2029-30. There is no further closure of coal-fired power stations, except for AGL's Liddell plant in NSW, up until 2029.

Some Queensland black coal generation is projected to withdraw "in line with key contracting and technical milestones" around 2029-30.

The chapter of modelling - not made public before today - does not, however, detail the assumptions that underpinned the work done for the board by ACIL Allen, the consultants.

Dylan McConnell, an energy expert at the University of Melbourne, said many analysts had hoped to see the precise assumptions used to support the board's arguments, including that the guarantee would save households an average of $550 per year over the first decade.

"Definitely, there's something missing," Mr McConnell said. "[The report] is not the actual modelling."

He contrasted the partial disclosure with the Gillard government's Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme, or carbon tax, when the full modelling from two separate consultancies was made public before the policy was voted on.

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"The Climate Change Authority always released its modelling," he said, adding that the same was true for the Warburton review into the Renewable Energy Target. The latter included a 200-page complement report by ACIL Allen to the 160-page main report.

"There are plenty of examples like this," Mr McConnell said.

Federal Labor is among those that has called for the full release of the modelling.

Fairfax Media sought comments from the board and from the office of Josh Frydenberg, the federal Environment and Energy Minister.

An official in one of the jurisdictions that will have to approve the national energy plan said an analyst was "stunned" by the short length of the report.

Changes possible - through Parliament

The Energy Security Board design paper also noted the potential impact in changes to the emissions reduction targets under the policy and suggested it will be up to the Federal Parliament to amend the plan.

“It is possible that higher emissions reduction targets - that is, a larger percentage reduction in emissions – may be set in the future by the Australian government,” the paper stated.

“This would require a change to Australian government legislation, however, the guarantee framework will automatically accommodate new targets.”

Some states have been pushing for the minister to be able to lift the target through regulation.

The board warned that without a mechanism like the guarantee, higher emissions reduction targets would lead to challenges for the integration of extra renewable power generation without appropriate backup power. Such a result could undermine the reliability of the grid, the report said.

From previous reports, any reduction in Queensland coal-fired power station may be the Gladstone power station, the state’s largest. That plant has a closure date of between 2026 and 2030.

Queensland’s other large coal power station, Tarong, is scheduled to close until around 2034.

Adam Bandt, the Greens climate change and energy spokesman, noted the extended report shows that the second stages of Victoria's and Queensland's renewable energy targets were not included in the plan.

“The final design and modelling of the NEG confirm that it is worse than nothing and should be rejected by COAG," Mr Bandt said.

“Pollution shouldn’t go up under a ‘climate’ policy. The NEG seems to guarantee one thing – we won’t get anywhere close to meeting our measly Paris targets.”

Australia pledged to cut nationals emissions at 2005 levels by 26-28 per cent by 2030. Under the energy policy, emissions are supposed to fall by a "pro-rata" of 26 per cent.

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