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The Coalition in New South Wales is relieved today. The Coalition in Canberra is not.
To some degree, the re-election of the Berejiklian Government for a third term — against expectations — has provided a morale boost for the Liberals.
The heat of the federal leadership spill last year, in which Scott Morrison replaced Malcolm Turnbull as Prime Minister, seems to have dissipated.
The white-hot anger in the Liberal base that bled into the Victorian state election has not stained the New South Wales results.
Knife-edge seats in western Sydney and on the south coast, where federal MPs are on similarly slim margins, fared far better than expected.
But any relief is tempered by a much bigger problem on the other side of the Great Dividing Range.
Voters' voices from Broken Hill to Dubbo were far louder than the din at the Liberal and Labor Party election functions in Sydney.
More than half of New South Wales, geographically speaking, is now represented by the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers.
The minor party wrested the seats of Barwon and Murray from the Nationals and increased its hold on Orange.
Across New South Wales, support for independents and minor parties increased.
The statewide swing against the Nationals of 1 per cent hides the extent to which voters rejected them in key seats.
It's not a surprise, but there's nothing like losing seats to put a problem in stark relief.
Voter discontent in the bush has been building for some time, as the drought exacerbated the pressures people are feeling.
But the problem for the federal Coalition is the Liberals and Nationals can, and will, interpret the backlash from the bush differently.
Nationals hamstrung
For some Nationals, it confirms their fears that the Liberals have left them hamstrung — addressing burning local issues risks putting them at odds with Coalition policy.
The Coalition's continued endorsement of the Murray-Darling Basin Plan is one example of this. The reluctance to back a new coal-fired power station in Queensland is another.
Some Queensland LNP members have been vocal in demanding the Coalition underwrite a coal-fired power station in their belief it will help lower power prices, at the risk of alienating Liberal voters further south.
The New South Wales results will encourage them to prioritise local concerns over national ones, to put the Nationals' needs ahead of the Coalition's.
Barnaby Joyce has already indicated he will do just that.
"We have to stand by policies that get these people back," he said last night as the results rolled in.
The New South Wales election confirms the fears of many federal Liberal MPs that their junior partner will drag them down.
The Liberals rely on the Nationals to hold regional seats for the Coalition, but yesterday's results suggest the Nationals are failing dismally on that count.
The message these Liberals read from the New South Wales result is not that the Nationals need to differentiate themselves, but that they need to be working closer together.
This prompted the Liberal MP for North Sydney, Trent Zimmerman, to deliver a brutal message to Barnaby Joyce: "Spend more time in Tamworth and less time on TV."
Key Liberal strategist Arthur Sinodinos had a similar message when he appealed for Mr Joyce's campaigning to be "channelled into the greater good for the Coalition".
Regional voters abandon major parties
Voters in the bush weren't just turning away from the Coalition, but the Labor Party, too.
They were turning away from the two-party system that has left them unimpressed and feeling unrepresented.
Long-serving Liberal MP Pru Goward retired at this election, having held the regional seat of Goulburn for more than decade.
At polling booths yesterday, she watched in dismay as voters sought how-to-vote cards from One Nation and the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers Party.
The task for the major parties in Australia is no longer a case of convincing voters they're better than the other mob.
They now also need to persuade Australians that minor parties and independents aren't viable alternatives.
They need to give voters a reason not to abandon the two-party system that characterises Australian politics.
It will require a more nuanced and more positive political debate, where the parties need to show what they can offer.
The bigger picture from the New South Wales election is that the Coalition and Labor need a reckoning.
Otherwise, they won't lose to each other — they'll lose together.
Topics: government-and-politics, elections, state-elections, federal-government, political-parties, minor-parties, australia, nsw, newcastle-2300, orange-2800, dubbo-2830, broken-hill-2880
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