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Posted: 2019-04-10 02:43:00

But the status quo for Packer is worth exploring because, if he is patient, the financial outcomes are probably not that much different to Wynn’s conditional and non-binding proposal of $14.75 a share.

If James Packer is patient he will get the value lost in Wynn's termination of takeover talks.  David Rowe

Crown has spent about $900 million of its $2.2 billion development capital for the Sydney casino at Barangaroo. This is due for completion in 2020.

The project has two value generating opportunities – a stack of luxury apartments worth about $800 million and a casino/hotel resort. There are mixed reports about the progress in selling the apartments. But the company is adamant it is going well.

Analysts are factoring in a range of earnings forecasts for Crown for 2021 when the Sydney casino is up and running. The forecasts range between $100 million and $150 million in higher earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation.

If you apply the Wynn earnings multiple to these numbers you could add up to $2 billion to the Crown valuation by 2020 given that markets usually price in anticipated earnings growth.

Obviously, the time value of money reduces the net present value calculation of these earnings. But it would not be unrealistic to suggest an uplift in Crown’s value from today of about $2 a share by late 2020 or early 2021.

There are many factors that could impact upon any earnings forecast for Crown not the least of which is the company’s reliance on the unpredictable flow of Chinese VIP gamblers.

But even in a worst case scenario with Packer leaving his Crown shares in a bottom drawer it is possible to be optimistic.

Don’t forget, Crown’s annual dividend payout of 60¢ a share means Packer will collect about $475 million in fully franked dividends between now and 2020. Wynn or no Wynn, Packer seems to be a winner.

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