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Posted: 2019-06-25 02:27:55

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Indeed, crippling US sanctions on Iranian oil could be removed tomorrow if Iran were to agree to negotiate about some straightforward measures that would rectify the worst shortcomings in that flawed deal, and address Teheran's other destablising rogue behaviours.

The JCPOA was profoundly flawed because the inspections regime was insufficiently watertight, it enabled Iran to continue to develop ballistic missiles, enrich uranium and work on advanced centrifuges and it appears very likely that Iran would be able to build nuclear weapons once the 10-year sunset clauses in the deal expired. Moreover, as critics predicted, the massive funds liberated by the deal turbo-charged Iran's aggressive activities regionally and beyond.

While the UK, France, Germany, Russia, and China remain in the JCPOA, Iran has threatened that it would stop complying with key elements of the nuclear deal unless the remaining members help it blunt the impact of US sanctions. On June 17, Iran's Atomic Energy Organisation declared that within 10 days Iran will have produced and kept more low-enriched uranium than the 300kg permitted by the JCPOA, and also threatened to begin enriching uranium to higher levels of purity, closer to those required for a nuclear weapon. Teheran has given the international community until July 7 to meet its demands.

The attacks on the tankers were probably intended to send a message that Iran can choke the vital Strait of Hormuz if it desires to do so in the lead-up to the July deadline. Iran likely calculated that this aggressive move could increase its leverage against the US, push the Europeans into finding a way around US sanctions, or both.

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But Iran's piracy and aggressive actions in the Persian Gulf should instead be a reminder that Iran is an inherently disruptive and dangerous rogue actor. Relying on the JCPOA to – hopefully – merely delay temporarily the Iranian nuclear bomb while allowing Iran to test missiles, run riot disruptively and aggressively on numerous other fronts across the region, should not be an option.

The only real alternative to armed conflict at this point is strong and resolute international pressure on Iran to return to negotiations with the US, as President Trump has repeatedly urged, and end its aggressive provocations both in the Gulf and around the world.

Last year, when Australia reviewed its policy on Iran and decided to continue its support for the JCPOA despite the US withdrawal from it, the government committed to confront aggressive Iranian behaviour on other fronts. Prime Minister Scott Morrison proclaimed: "We will keep the option of additional autonomous sanctions under active review."

Given the alleged Iranian aggression in the Persian Gulf and Iran's plans to begin openly violating the JCPOA, now is the time for that review process to lead to major policy changes. In terms of its own profound national security interests and commitment to a stable, rules-based international order, Australia should be doing whatever it can to contribute to the timely, calibrated and well-justified US-led strategy of increasing the pressure on Iran.

Autonomous sanctions should be an important part of a larger program for Australia to contribute to efforts to maximise economic and diplomatic pressure on Iran as creatively and expansively as possible.

Colin Rubenstein is Executive Director of the Australia/Israel & Jewish Affairs Council.

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